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3 Nov US midterm prediction markets approach $1.9 billion in wagers A proliferation of contracts and high-profile partnerships has brought election betting into the mainstream, even as concerns persist over accuracy and regulation.
3 Nov Illinois appeals injunction shielding some Kalshi and Coinbase sports contracts The Seventh Circuit challenge leaves in place, for now, an order barring Illinois licensing, tax and enforcement actions against covered federally traded contracts.
3 Nov High Roller launches ROLR dashboard for midterm market odds The site tracks House and Senate control alongside individual races, while warning that its live market data are not election results.
3 Nov Virginia prediction markets gave McGuire an edge and Cline a commanding lead A WSLS 10 segment put more than $1 million of wagering behind the closely watched 5th District race, while wider evidence showed why market odds are not polls.
2 Nov Polymarket prices a modest Nvidia rebound after October miss Contracts gave shares a 70% chance of touching $216 in November, but only an 18% chance of returning to October’s $240 high.
2 Nov Polymarket’s prediction-market share falls to 17.2% as Kalshi holds lead Face-value volume puts Kalshi at three-quarters of DeFi Rate’s latest nine-venue tally, while Polymarket retains a lead in U.S. search interest.
2 Nov Polls and prediction markets point to Democratic gains, but share the same risks House-control prices approach certainty while the Senate remains tighter and analysts warn that market odds often follow polling rather than independently test it.
2 Nov Polymarket account stakes $846,000 on Republicans losing House control The trader later sold part of the Democratic position as House-control prices put the party above 94% ahead of Election Day.
1 Nov Former CFTC chair Giancarlo calls prediction markets a social good The Polymarket adviser says betting crowds can yield useful data, though research suggests a small minority supplies much of the accuracy.
1 Nov Bloomberg election page tracks $230 million in Kalshi control contracts House and Senate betting odds sit alongside vote results and a survey of investors’ views on the market consequences of congressional control.
1 Nov Kalshi gave $63,000 in Hawaiʻi as prediction-market ban stalled The exchange backed the state Democratic Party and 22 Democratic candidates, including House members who supported restrictions on its contracts.
1 Nov Kalshi puts El-Sayed at 77% as Stevens dispute shadows Michigan Senate race The Democrat’s market lead widened before Election Day, while a clash over outside advertising split attention in the campaign’s closing days.