Tesla-SpaceX merger market sees 9% odds of a year-end announcement

Prediction markets put only a 9% chance on Tesla and SpaceX making an official merger announcement by Dec. 31, even as a longer-dated contract assigned a 66.5% probability to an announcement by Jan. 1, 2028. The two prices point to sharply different expectations about whether a deal could be announced within weeks or over a longer timetable.

CryptoBriefing reported the contract prices. The year-end figure does not represent an assessment by either company.

As we reported on Oct. 19, prediction-market traders had previously put the chance of a Tesla-SpaceX merger before February 2027 at about 67%. The newer contracts use different announcement deadlines, making their prices measures of timing as well as traders’ views on the prospect of a transaction.

There is, however, a formal process under way. Tesla and SpaceX formed special committees on Oct. 20 to evaluate a proposed deal, according to a Yahoo Finance report. SpaceX’s Oct. 22 quarterly filing said any combination would require further approval from its special committee, board and controlling shareholder.

Elon Musk controls roughly 85% of SpaceX’s voting power. He has said his exclusion from merger discussions created “an odd kabuki dance where two groups of people are talking, and I can't be in the conversation.” Insiders said Musk’s public endorsement of the transaction complicated the committees’ ability to negotiate at arm’s length.

Tesla shareholders would also have to approve a transaction with votes representing 50% of all outstanding shares, rather than simply a majority of votes cast. Musk called that requirement “quite a high hurdle.” REX Financial estimated that he would hold about 57% of the voting power of a combined company, which analysts have estimated could be worth roughly $3.5 trillion.

The proposed tie-up is being considered during a renewed period of large-scale dealmaking. U.S.-targeted announced transactions totalled $1.5 trillion in the first half of 2026. Globally, deal value rose 15% year on year in the first eight months of 2026, Boston Consulting Group said, while the number of deals worth at least $10 billion exceeded the previous M&A boom’s highs.

That recovery has not removed the obstacles facing individual transactions. Financing conditions remained workable despite rising interest rates, but valuation gaps, scarce attractive assets and uncertainty over future business performance had blocked some deals. It put its M&A Sentiment Index at 83, above 79 at the start of the year but below its long-term average of 100; technology registered a relatively low score of 52.

Morgan Stanley had described 2025 as a broad M&A resurgence, with global volumes rising about 40% from 2024 to roughly $4 trillion. It attributed the earlier revival to declining interest rates, record-high equity markets and pro-growth US policies, and said more than 60% of surveyed investors expected activity to increase in 2026.

For the Tesla-SpaceX contracts, statements by Musk or formal filings from either company could alter pricing, while a definitive announcement would be expected to prompt a substantial market repricing. Tesla’s annual meeting is scheduled for Dec. 3.