Kalshi traders put Tesla-SpaceX merger odds at 67%

Kalshi traders priced the chance of a Tesla-SpaceX merger before February 2027 at about 67% on Oct. 19, more than twice the roughly 30% implied probability at the start of the month. The price reflected wagers on the prediction-market exchange, rather than an official assessment or a disclosed transaction plan.

Neither company had announced a merger. Speculation intensified after Tesla’s latest proxy materials highlighted board links with SpaceX and provisions governing Elon Musk’s compensation in a change of control, according to reporting by Walter Bloomberg.

The contract asks, “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?” and is to be verified using news reports and the SEC’s EDGAR database. Its rise followed a Barclays note outlining how an integration might work. By Oct. 16, a Kalshi price for a merger before March had risen to 56% from 29%, CNBC reported.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy argued that the principal rationale would be vertical integration rather than financial synergies. He identified potential links involving Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus businesses, SpaceX’s Grok and Macrohard, and the Terafab semiconductor project involving Tesla, SpaceX and xAI.

The companies are both controlled by Musk and have collaborated previously. Musk said on Tesla’s latest earnings call that there was “more and more overlap” between them. In July, when asked about a possible combination, he said it would have to “be done with the appropriate process.”

Tesla’s proxy also identified director Ira Ehrenpreis as a SpaceX board member, having joined that board in February. Kimbal Musk, another Tesla director, has also served on SpaceX’s board. Tesla’s $2 billion investment in xAI converted into SpaceX Class A shares after SpaceX acquired xAI Holdings, leaving Tesla with less than 1% of SpaceX, according to Electrek’s account of the proxy.

The filing disclosed Tesla revenue of $143.3 million from SpaceX in 2025, mainly from vehicle sales, alongside $430.1 million from xAI, mostly for Megapacks. Those commercial and ownership links do not constitute a merger agreement.

The change-of-control provisions have drawn particular attention because they would remove the 12 operational milestones normally attached to Musk’s 2025 compensation award. Any tranche earned through the deal valuation would vest immediately, rather than over 7.5 to 10 years. A $3 trillion Tesla valuation would earn three tranches totaling 105.9 million shares without the Robotaxi or Optimus milestones.

Tesla’s annual meeting is scheduled for Dec. 3 at Gigafactory Texas, with shareholders of record on Oct. 13 eligible to vote.