https://predictable.gg/news/ Daily coverage of prediction markets. en Tue, 22 Sep 2026 21:07:49 +0000 https://predictable.gg/news/ZDvxrDTEPC/novigs-sydney-sweeney-campaign-triggers-criticism-over-portrayal-of-womens-sport/ https://predictable.gg/news/ZDvxrDTEPC/novigs-sydney-sweeney-campaign-triggers-criticism-over-portrayal-of-womens-sport/ Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:03:24 +0000 The sports prediction-market company’s first national advert generated tens of millions of views, but drew a forceful response from athletes. https://predictable.gg/news/Gks0sPnlec/kalshi-seeks-more-time-to-answer-new-jersey-at-supreme-court/ https://predictable.gg/news/Gks0sPnlec/kalshi-seeks-more-time-to-answer-new-jersey-at-supreme-court/ Tue, 22 Sep 2026 00:03:21 +0000 A requested 30-day extension would shift the prediction-market operator’s response deadline to Nov. 9 in a dispute over state gambling laws. https://predictable.gg/news/N6a5iDPisw/tunica-biloxi-launches-salttrade-a-tribal-owned-prediction-market-app-powered-by-kalshi/ https://predictable.gg/news/N6a5iDPisw/tunica-biloxi-launches-salttrade-a-tribal-owned-prediction-market-app-powered-by-kalshi/ Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:02:28 +0000 The Louisiana tribe says the venture advances economic self-determination, but tribal gaming groups say it lends support to a contested sports-event-contract model. https://predictable.gg/news/ERgYcyL1tz/montana-pauses-kalshi-enforcement-while-ninth-circuit-rehearing-petition-is-pending/ https://predictable.gg/news/ERgYcyL1tz/montana-pauses-kalshi-enforcement-while-ninth-circuit-rehearing-petition-is-pending/ Sun, 20 Sep 2026 00:01:30 +0000 The state will not pursue investigations or cease-and-desist action against the prediction-market operator during a defined review period, but the agreement leaves the legal dispute unresolved. https://predictable.gg/news/RtdsiCErVk/yahoo-finance-ends-polymarket-data-partnership-after-removing-prediction-hub/ https://predictable.gg/news/RtdsiCErVk/yahoo-finance-ends-polymarket-data-partnership-after-removing-prediction-hub/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:04:47 +0000 Polymarket will remain an advertising partner across Yahoo, while the companies say they are open to similar collaborations. https://predictable.gg/news/RTmdxKrnrn/illinois-legislator-seeks-repeal-of-new-prediction-market-sports-tax/ https://predictable.gg/news/RTmdxKrnrn/illinois-legislator-seeks-repeal-of-new-prediction-market-sports-tax/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:04:21 +0000 HB 5811 would remove Illinois’s levy on sports-related exchange wagers less than three months after it took effect. https://predictable.gg/news/At4zPvNIhP/missouri-orders-six-prediction-markets-to-halt-sports-event-contracts/ https://predictable.gg/news/At4zPvNIhP/missouri-orders-six-prediction-markets-to-halt-sports-event-contracts/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:03:54 +0000 Attorney General Catherine Hanaway says the platforms are operating unlicensed sports wagering and must secure state licences or stop serving Missourians. https://predictable.gg/news/9V3DYrPt54/ninth-circuit-says-kalshi-sports-contracts-on-tribal-lands-are-likely-illegal-gaming/ https://predictable.gg/news/9V3DYrPt54/ninth-circuit-says-kalshi-sports-contracts-on-tribal-lands-are-likely-illegal-gaming/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:02:20 +0000 Appeals panel sent the tribes’ injunction request back for further review, while leaving intact the dismissal of their false-advertising claim. https://predictable.gg/news/dksgCOi1oB/bmll-puts-kalshi-order-book-history-into-institutional-research-systems/ https://predictable.gg/news/dksgCOi1oB/bmll-puts-kalshi-order-book-history-into-institutional-research-systems/ Sat, 19 Sep 2026 00:02:14 +0000 The data provider will standardise Kalshi’s historical event-contract records to the schema used for CME Event Contracts, allowing quantitative teams to backtest macro signals without bespoke API work. https://predictable.gg/news/zyK0RsLTC0/underdog-sues-connecticut-over-sports-prediction-market-orders/ https://predictable.gg/news/zyK0RsLTC0/underdog-sues-connecticut-over-sports-prediction-market-orders/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 23:47:56 +0000 The company says federal commodities law pre-empts state gambling enforcement, while Connecticut says sports betting requires a state licence. https://predictable.gg/news/KiJGbSA2XP/new-york-judge-weighs-whether-federal-law-shields-prediction-markets-from-state-gambling-rules/ https://predictable.gg/news/KiJGbSA2XP/new-york-judge-weighs-whether-federal-law-shields-prediction-markets-from-state-gambling-rules/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 23:47:55 +0000 Judge Lorna G. Schofield heard competing claims that event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or unlawful sports wagers under state law. https://predictable.gg/news/eHSe02MSg1/texas-senate-hearing-sharpens-clash-over-kalshis-sports-prediction-contracts/ https://predictable.gg/news/eHSe02MSg1/texas-senate-hearing-sharpens-clash-over-kalshis-sports-prediction-contracts/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 23:47:35 +0000 Lawmakers heard competing calls for state enforcement and federal deference ahead of the next legislative session. https://predictable.gg/news/JHtG7OXjT3/genius-sports-says-prediction-market-demand-will-survive-regulatory-change/ https://predictable.gg/news/JHtG7OXjT3/genius-sports-says-prediction-market-demand-will-survive-regulatory-change/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 23:47:18 +0000 Chief executive Mark Locke says the company can earn from exchanges, market makers and sportsbooks even if today’s model is reshaped. https://predictable.gg/news/N9Z2WvZxTA/nfl-prediction-trading-tops-1035-billion-as-kalshi-dominates/ https://predictable.gg/news/N9Z2WvZxTA/nfl-prediction-trading-tops-1035-billion-as-kalshi-dominates/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 23:35:41 +0000 Patriots-Seahawks and 49ers-Rams each drew more than $100 million as Week 1 trading spread well beyond the opening games. https://predictable.gg/news/vF5O38MHUF/nfl-tennis-and-the-fed-lift-prediction-markets-to-141-billion/ https://predictable.gg/news/vF5O38MHUF/nfl-tennis-and-the-fed-lift-prediction-markets-to-141-billion/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 23:34:58 +0000 Combined volume rose 9.3% in the Sept. 7-13 week as sports contracts and a Fed rate bet dominated trading. https://predictable.gg/news/TSzBjnv5Ke/prediction-markets-lift-clarity-act-odds-before-senate-vote/ https://predictable.gg/news/TSzBjnv5Ke/prediction-markets-lift-clarity-act-odds-before-senate-vote/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 23:32:48 +0000 Polymarket and Kalshi traders marked up the crypto bill, though Democrats still face a 60-vote cloture hurdle and a longer road to final passage. https://predictable.gg/news/4qhQ9Jta6U/aga-backs-new-york-in-fight-over-prediction-markets/ https://predictable.gg/news/4qhQ9Jta6U/aga-backs-new-york-in-fight-over-prediction-markets/ Sun, 13 Sep 2026 23:16:55 +0000 The trade group told a federal judge that sports-event contracts are gambling products in substance, not just derivatives, as the wider battle over who regulates prediction markets deepens. https://predictable.gg/news/Is0qoJIO1u/nbc-says-nfl-season-could-be-prediction-markets-biggest-yet/ https://predictable.gg/news/Is0qoJIO1u/nbc-says-nfl-season-could-be-prediction-markets-biggest-yet/ Sun, 13 Sep 2026 23:16:52 +0000 Analysts see football as a near-term driver for event-contract trading, with NBC News saying volume on Kalshi and Polymarket could top $36 billion. https://predictable.gg/news/IvHmNQenhH/all-bettors-launches-free-to-play-platform-built-around-curv-coins/ https://predictable.gg/news/IvHmNQenhH/all-bettors-launches-free-to-play-platform-built-around-curv-coins/ Sat, 12 Sep 2026 23:17:39 +0000 The social gaming site mixes prediction markets and casino-style play while saying users face no real-money wagering or cash prizes. https://predictable.gg/news/O11naAL1Yj/esma-says-polymarket-kalshi-lack-eu-authorization/ https://predictable.gg/news/O11naAL1Yj/esma-says-polymarket-kalshi-lack-eu-authorization/ Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:07:38 +0000 The watchdog also questioned partial geo-blocks, saying event contracts can fall under securities, crypto or gambling rules depending on how they are structured. https://predictable.gg/news/annq2pH8Yz/pennsylvania-lawmakers-move-to-tax-and-police-prediction-markets/ https://predictable.gg/news/annq2pH8Yz/pennsylvania-lawmakers-move-to-tax-and-police-prediction-markets/ Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:06:36 +0000 One bill would hand oversight to the state gaming board and impose steep taxes, while another would target insider trading, manipulation and sensitive wagers. https://predictable.gg/news/nz0nljW0Cf/cme-ends-new-expiries-for-sports-and-awards-swaps/ https://predictable.gg/news/nz0nljW0Cf/cme-ends-new-expiries-for-sports-and-awards-swaps/ Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:05:51 +0000 Existing contracts on Globex will keep trading, clearing and settling as the exchange rewrites its listing schedule. https://predictable.gg/news/APcXOAregq/cftc-opened-three-polymarket-probes/ https://predictable.gg/news/APcXOAregq/cftc-opened-three-polymarket-probes/ Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:04:45 +0000 FOIA records point to private investigations into Biden pardon markets, Iran contracts and Google-themed trades. https://predictable.gg/news/1ggIIYVlrW/connecticut-orders-nine-prediction-platforms-to-halt-sports-contracts/ https://predictable.gg/news/1ggIIYVlrW/connecticut-orders-nine-prediction-platforms-to-halt-sports-contracts/ Fri, 11 Sep 2026 23:04:10 +0000 State officials say the firms were offering unlicensed sports event contracts and must stop advertising, promoting and making them available to residents. https://predictable.gg/news/WEToP6zeDx/underdog-sues-five-states-over-prediction-markets/ https://predictable.gg/news/WEToP6zeDx/underdog-sues-five-states-over-prediction-markets/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:05:33 +0000 The company says state gambling laws are pre-empted by federal commodities rules. https://predictable.gg/news/mlfVqTfPJR/kalshi-brings-oddpool-in-house/ https://predictable.gg/news/mlfVqTfPJR/kalshi-brings-oddpool-in-house/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:03:57 +0000 The prediction-market data startup was co-founded by Avi Arora and Ritesh Malpani, and its founders said talks with chief executive Tarek Mansour convinced them they could move faster inside Kalshi. https://predictable.gg/news/AAqz9ZQfaU/michigan-pauses-robinhoods-new-sports-event-contracts/ https://predictable.gg/news/AAqz9ZQfaU/michigan-pauses-robinhoods-new-sports-event-contracts/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:03:31 +0000 The state says the company will stop taking new sports-related positions by the end of Wednesday and unwind existing ones by Oct. 9, while the wider fight over prediction markets continues. https://predictable.gg/news/7IHDgrHleM/polymarket-names-first-companywide-cfo-as-fundraising-looms/ https://predictable.gg/news/7IHDgrHleM/polymarket-names-first-companywide-cfo-as-fundraising-looms/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 23:02:45 +0000 Warren Jenson joins as the company seeks new capital and expands its regulated exchange and global platform. https://predictable.gg/news/tRU0UIe1tS/10th-circuit-lets-utah-keep-enforcing-gambling-laws-against-kalshi/ https://predictable.gg/news/tRU0UIe1tS/10th-circuit-lets-utah-keep-enforcing-gambling-laws-against-kalshi/ Wed, 09 Sep 2026 22:51:18 +0000 The appeals court declined to pause state action while Kalshi challenges a ruling that federal law does not preempt Utah’s gambling ban. https://predictable.gg/news/OlhNgJPxHs/small-bets-sway-us-congressional-prediction-markets/ https://predictable.gg/news/OlhNgJPxHs/small-bets-sway-us-congressional-prediction-markets/ Wed, 09 Sep 2026 22:50:39 +0000 The Anti-Corruption Data Collective said a $3,500 wager could move almost every market it studied, and the exchanges pushed back. https://predictable.gg/news/N22YlQFXof/tema-launches-first-prediction-market-etf/ https://predictable.gg/news/N22YlQFXof/tema-launches-first-prediction-market-etf/ Wed, 09 Sep 2026 22:50:07 +0000 The actively managed fund buys public stocks and private stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket, while steering clear of event contracts and charging 0.75% a year. https://predictable.gg/news/TXYXd5WzEF/new-mexico-tribes-finish-bid-to-block-kalshi-on-tribal-lands/ https://predictable.gg/news/TXYXd5WzEF/new-mexico-tribes-finish-bid-to-block-kalshi-on-tribal-lands/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:33:02 +0000 The Mescalero Apache Tribe and three pueblos say the prediction-market firm’s sports contracts undercut tribal compacts and federal law, while Kalshi points to CFTC authority and a recent Ninth Circuit ruling in Nevada. https://predictable.gg/news/VrRhfUJlDP/polymarket-adds-squads-to-bring-trading-into-group-chats/ https://predictable.gg/news/VrRhfUJlDP/polymarket-adds-squads-to-bring-trading-into-group-chats/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:32:15 +0000 The new in-app feature lets friends message, share positions and trade through their own accounts while Polymarket leans into football season. https://predictable.gg/news/feEGcyYtu4/lebron-james-teases-polymarket-partnership-with-football-focus/ https://predictable.gg/news/feEGcyYtu4/lebron-james-teases-polymarket-partnership-with-football-focus/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 21:48:58 +0000 A short X video showed him inside Polymarket HQ, with the campaign expected to center on football. https://predictable.gg/news/WdNKVuj9dD/nfl-presses-kalshi-and-polymarket-to-drop-objectionable-bets/ https://predictable.gg/news/WdNKVuj9dD/nfl-presses-kalshi-and-polymarket-to-drop-objectionable-bets/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 21:47:55 +0000 The league said wagers on injuries, officiating, broadcast mentions and celebrity attendance could threaten game integrity as the 2026 season nears. https://predictable.gg/news/9VnkpfF93f/fanatics-folds-prediction-markets-into-sports-casino-app/ https://predictable.gg/news/9VnkpfF93f/fanatics-folds-prediction-markets-into-sports-casino-app/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 21:47:09 +0000 Existing users can keep their account data and rewards as the company rolls sports betting, casino play and event contracts into a single interface. https://predictable.gg/news/mVdSvzzATo/cftc-seeks-to-dismiss-cmes-kalshi-lawsuit-over-bitcoin-perpetual-futures/ https://predictable.gg/news/mVdSvzzATo/cftc-seeks-to-dismiss-cmes-kalshi-lawsuit-over-bitcoin-perpetual-futures/ Thu, 03 Sep 2026 21:46:53 +0000 The regulator says CME lacks standing and argues the court does not need to decide whether perpetual crypto contracts belong in the swaps or futures bucket. https://predictable.gg/news/ejX2BtkFlU/novig-and-underdog-take-share-in-prediction-market-combos/ https://predictable.gg/news/ejX2BtkFlU/novig-and-underdog-take-share-in-prediction-market-combos/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 21:34:51 +0000 Eilers & Krejcik data show multi-leg trades reached half of August volume, with DraftKings arriving late and still generating a burst of activity. https://predictable.gg/news/z71CK7qrPh/new-jersey-asks-supreme-court-to-decide-who-regulates-kalshi-sports-contracts/ https://predictable.gg/news/z71CK7qrPh/new-jersey-asks-supreme-court-to-decide-who-regulates-kalshi-sports-contracts/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 21:33:17 +0000 The state wants the justices to settle a widening clash over whether prediction markets can sidestep state gambling laws when they trade on sports outcomes. https://predictable.gg/news/BzbdQRgFhM/michigan-wins-injunction-blocking-kalshi-sports-wagers/ https://predictable.gg/news/BzbdQRgFhM/michigan-wins-injunction-blocking-kalshi-sports-wagers/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 21:32:35 +0000 A state judge ordered the prediction-market firm to stop offering online sports contracts in Michigan, add geofencing controls and face $500,000-a-day penalties for violations. https://predictable.gg/news/i6tV6sCkzY/kalshi-says-washington-is-enforcing-gambling-laws-selectively-as-rivals-stay-active/ https://predictable.gg/news/i6tV6sCkzY/kalshi-says-washington-is-enforcing-gambling-laws-selectively-as-rivals-stay-active/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 21:32:43 +0000 The company asked the state gambling commission to revisit its record, and the attorney general’s office said it need not pursue every similar operator at once. https://predictable.gg/news/gZfYQrWO2g/1789-capital-leads-polymarket-to-21-billion-valuation/ https://predictable.gg/news/gZfYQrWO2g/1789-capital-leads-polymarket-to-21-billion-valuation/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 21:19:52 +0000 The prediction-market platform’s latest fundraise follows an April deal at $15 billion and comes as it faces fiercer competition from Kalshi. https://predictable.gg/news/ZpvsDxxgqB/kalshi-suspends-north-carolina-candidate-over-bets-on-her-own-race/ https://predictable.gg/news/ZpvsDxxgqB/kalshi-suspends-north-carolina-candidate-over-bets-on-her-own-race/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 21:18:47 +0000 The Republican nominee said she made a “dumb mistake” after the prediction-market exchange found she bought contracts tied to her campaign and imposed a three-year ban. https://predictable.gg/news/qPFpMsfK2b/kalshi-bans-george-santos-for-life-over-state-of-union-betting/ https://predictable.gg/news/qPFpMsfK2b/kalshi-bans-george-santos-for-life-over-state-of-union-betting/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 21:18:33 +0000 The prediction market said the former congressman wagered against his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s speech and then tried to move the market with public comments. https://predictable.gg/news/97TYDipYIX/kalshi-turns-to-alpaca-for-global-distribution/ https://predictable.gg/news/97TYDipYIX/kalshi-turns-to-alpaca-for-global-distribution/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 21:17:23 +0000 The brokerage infrastructure deal would let clients trade event contracts on familiar platforms, with overseas rollout depending on local approval. https://predictable.gg/news/NYBiQe76rt/boom-sports-adds-prophetx-markets-to-its-app/ https://predictable.gg/news/NYBiQe76rt/boom-sports-adds-prophetx-markets-to-its-app/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 21:17:18 +0000 The partnership will let Boom users trade sports event contracts in-app through ProphetX’s CFTC-regulated exchange, extending prediction markets into a daily fantasy sports audience. https://predictable.gg/news/yA7cqHqqyx/openai-showed-kalshis-world-cup-odds-in-chatgpt/ https://predictable.gg/news/yA7cqHqqyx/openai-showed-kalshis-world-cup-odds-in-chatgpt/ Sun, 30 Aug 2026 21:02:05 +0000 The search result for France and Spain showed a 60% win chance, and the tie-up was not promoted publicly. https://predictable.gg/news/hEWf0G3d0k/kalshi-lands-exclusive-us-open-prediction-market-deal/ https://predictable.gg/news/hEWf0G3d0k/kalshi-lands-exclusive-us-open-prediction-market-deal/ Sun, 30 Aug 2026 21:01:13 +0000 The agreement took effect as the tournament’s main draw began, but the financial terms were not disclosed and rival prediction platforms are barred from ads at the venue and on ESPN. https://predictable.gg/news/FRNozj8DgW/bc-says-prediction-market-sports-bets-are-illegal-gambling/ https://predictable.gg/news/FRNozj8DgW/bc-says-prediction-market-sports-bets-are-illegal-gambling/ Sun, 30 Aug 2026 21:01:08 +0000 The province sharpened its line after federal regulators said sports and entertainment contracts did not belong under securities rules. https://predictable.gg/news/oQ7PoSAPdt/cftc-orders-former-white-house-teleprompter-operator-to-repay-kalshi-mention-market-profits/ https://predictable.gg/news/oQ7PoSAPdt/cftc-orders-former-white-house-teleprompter-operator-to-repay-kalshi-mention-market-profits/ Sat, 29 Aug 2026 20:47:11 +0000 Gabriel Perez must disgorge more than $107,000 and pay a $65,000 penalty after regulators said he used presidential speeches to trade contracts on words the president might say.