Polymarket puts Netanyahu exit by June 2027 at 68% as Eisenkot seeks coalition

Polymarket traders priced a 68% chance on Nov. 8 that Benjamin Netanyahu would leave office by June 30, 2027, amid an attempt by opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form Israel’s next government. The prediction market put Netanyahu’s departure by March 31, 2027, at 66%, and by Dec. 31 at 44.5%.

The shorter-dated contracts had risen sharply over the previous week. The December contract was up about 26 percentage points, while the March contract had gained about 41 points. These are market prices based on bets, rather than polling or an official forecast.

The moves followed President Isaac Herzog’s announcement on Nov. 7 that Eisenkot, a former army chief who leads the opposition Yashar party, would receive the mandate to form a government. On Nov. 5, lawmakers representing 67 of the Knesset’s 120 seats recommended Eisenkot, against 46 for Netanyahu; a seven-member faction nominated no candidate.

That recommendation did not itself settle who could govern. Eisenkot has 28 days to build a government, with a possible 14-day extension from Herzog, while Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a new cabinet is sworn in. If Eisenkot fails, the mandate would pass to Netanyahu for another four weeks.

Eisenkot has sought what he called a “national emergency government.” CNN reported that his proposed minority cabinet would comprise four Jewish opposition parties with 48 seats, while Arab parties could provide support from outside the government. But Avigdor Lieberman has opposed reliance on Arab parties, and the opposition’s commitment to universal service conflicts with ultra-Orthodox parties’ stance on military-service exemptions.

As reported in late October, Polymarket had already put Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu in its separate market on the next prime minister before the election. On Nov. 8, that market priced Eisenkot at 66.8%, Netanyahu at 18.6%, Lieberman at 6.6% and Naftali Bennett at 2.8%.

The departure contracts and next-prime-minister market measure different outcomes and should not be combined. The departure market had drawn about $125 million in bets since opening, but only about $35,000 changed hands across its three live contracts in the preceding 24 hours, nearly all in the December contract. Such low recent activity means a small number of bets can materially shift prices, particularly for the nearer deadline.

Eisenkot’s first parliamentary test is due on Nov. 10, when the new Knesset is sworn in and the opposition intends to seek replacement of Netanyahu’s Knesset speaker.