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3 Nov Jefferies puts October prediction-market daily volume at record $4.13 billion Sports contracts supplied 78% of daily trading as open interest reached $3.27 billion
3 Nov CFTC opens regulated U.S. route for single-stock perpetual futures Markets must also file SEC notice to trade security futures, placing the products under a shared regulatory framework.
3 Nov US midterm prediction markets approach $1.9 billion in wagers A proliferation of contracts and high-profile partnerships has brought election betting into the mainstream, even as concerns persist over accuracy and regulation.
3 Nov Virginia prediction markets gave McGuire an edge and Cline a commanding lead A WSLS 10 segment put more than $1 million of wagering behind the closely watched 5th District race, while wider evidence showed why market odds are not polls.
2 Nov Polymarket prices a modest Nvidia rebound after October miss Contracts gave shares a 70% chance of touching $216 in November, but only an 18% chance of returning to October’s $240 high.
2 Nov Polymarket’s prediction-market share falls to 17.2% as Kalshi holds lead Face-value volume puts Kalshi at three-quarters of DeFi Rate’s latest nine-venue tally, while Polymarket retains a lead in U.S. search interest.
2 Nov Polls and prediction markets point to Democratic gains, but share the same risks House-control prices approach certainty while the Senate remains tighter and analysts warn that market odds often follow polling rather than independently test it.
2 Nov Polymarket account stakes $846,000 on Republicans losing House control The trader later sold part of the Democratic position as House-control prices put the party above 94% ahead of Election Day.
1 Nov Former CFTC chair Giancarlo calls prediction markets a social good The Polymarket adviser says betting crowds can yield useful data, though research suggests a small minority supplies much of the accuracy.
31 Oct North Carolina prediction-market trading passes $10 million as Cooper holds 97% odds The Senate race has drawn $5.5 million in trading, while market signals in two House contests differ sharply from conventional race ratings and polls.
30 Oct News outlets add prediction-market partners before the midterms CBS, CNN, CNBC and Dow Jones are among media groups bringing Kalshi or Polymarket data into political coverage, prompting scrutiny of disclosure and editorial priorities.
29 Oct SEC signals prediction-market enforcement over fraud and insider trading David Woodcock said securities-linked contracts on earnings and company metrics could draw particular scrutiny.