Polymarket prices a modest Nvidia rebound after October miss

Polymarket traders entered November pricing a modest rebound in Nvidia shares after badly missing the stock’s October decline. Nvidia closed Oct. 30 at $204.64, down 10.4% from $228.38 at the end of September and well below the roughly $223.81 month-end level traders had anticipated.

The reversal came after the stock reached $240 during October. A Polymarket contract on an October close above $210 traded at an average price of 0.767, implying a 76.7% probability, before settling No. The miss stood out because the favored outcome has been correct in 78.8% of 467 resolved Nvidia markets.

As of a midday Nov. 2 snapshot reported by 24/7 Wall St., Nvidia traded at $207.66 and the November contracts implied traders saw a better chance of a moderate move than a return to October’s high. Contract prices run from zero to one and represent the market’s implied probability, while prices can change quickly.

In the November “hit” market, which resolves Yes if the shares reach a specified level at any point during the month, the implied probability of touching $216 was 70%. It fell to 48% for $224 and 18% for $240. On the downside, the probability of hitting $184 was 31.5%, while a fall to $160 was priced at 7%.

The hit market had recorded about $10,100 in trading volume, considerably more than the end-of-month close market’s roughly $103. That thinner close market put the probability of Nvidia ending November at $200 at 64%, compared with 32% for a $220 close. The markets measure different outcomes: a price may touch a level during the month without closing there.

Nvidia’s underlying financial results remain a key backdrop to those wagers. Its fiscal second-quarter revenue was $96.22 billion, up 105.85% from a year earlier, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.22 exceeded the $2.09 consensus estimate. Management guided for third-quarter revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.

The company’s finance chief had warned on the August earnings call that memory-price increases had “exceeded our prior expectations.” Memory costs and guidance that excluded China data-center revenue were identified as risks that could push the stock toward the lower November targets.

Polymarket also priced a 73% to 75% adjusted gross-margin outcome at 81%. Wall Street’s consensus price target of $328.95 covered about 12 months, making it a different measure from the short-term November contracts.

Nvidia is scheduled to report quarterly results after the market closes on Tuesday, Nov. 17, an event that could rapidly reshape the month’s prediction-market prices.