North Carolina prediction-market trading passes $10 million as Cooper holds 97% odds

Trading on North Carolina’s congressional prediction markets has surpassed $10 million, with $5.5 million tied to the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper remained the overwhelming market favourite: Prediction.com’s Oct. 30 listing put his implied chance of victory at 97.3%, compared with 3% for Whatley.

As reported Oct. 26, nearly $7 million had then been wagered across Kalshi and Polymarket on the Senate race and the state’s 14 House contests, with more than $4.4 million on the Senate contest alone. Queen City News subsequently reported the higher statewide congressional total, although its figure does not specify the platforms included.

The Senate market’s pricing was closely aligned across venues monitored by Prediction.com. Cooper’s contracts were priced from 97 cents on Kalshi to 97.5 cents on PredictIt and Polymarket US, and the largest cross-platform difference was 1.2 percentage points. The market covers the Nov. 3 election, including any runoff.

Polling has shown a much closer, though still substantial, lead for Cooper. A High Point University/YouGov survey of 620 likely voters, conducted Oct. 1-20, found Cooper supported by 54% and Whatley by 40%; its credibility interval was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. Polls measure voter support, while market prices represent traders’ collective estimate of who will win.

AJ Francia, of Prediction.com, said traders use polling alongside news, social media and other information, allowing prices to move in real time. Prediction.com says fundraising, voter sentiment, national political trends and major issues can also shape the odds. Kalshi has similarly described markets as a complement to polls rather than a replacement.

The differences are particularly apparent in the 1st Congressional District. Markets gave Democratic Representative Don Davis roughly an 80% chance of defeating Republican Laurie Buckhout, while the Cook Political Report rated the race a toss-up and polls put the candidates within the margin of error. About $27,000 had traded in that market, nearly 96% of it during October.

Davis’s implied chance had been about 20% last November and the race was viewed as a dead heat by midsummer. In the 11th District, Jamie Ager’s implied chance rose above 85% earlier this month, before Cook shifted its rating to Lean Democratic; about $42,000 had traded in that market, 79% during October.

Such prices should not be treated as certain forecasts. Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper warned that markets reflect what people believe will happen, that a single large trader can have an outsized effect, and that participants can be wrong. The University of Washington Center for an Informed Public also noted that traders are anonymous, their demographics are generally unknown, and market odds have representativeness problems.

A Brennan Center for Justice study of about 2,000 registered voters in hypothetical races found that favourable market odds made respondents 10 to 20 percentage points more likely to see a candidate as the likely winner. Only 19% called election prediction markets accurate, compared with 37% for conventional polls.

Prediction.com lists the Senate market as expected to settle by Jan. 4, 2027.