Prediction markets see low near-term odds of Jensen Huang leaving Nvidia

Prediction-market traders put relatively low odds on Jensen Huang leaving Nvidia in the near term after the company’s board opened an independent investigation into reports that its founder and chief executive had been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.

The board said a committee of independent directors, assisted by outside independent counsel, would oversee the inquiry. It said it had no reason to believe that national security or Nvidia secrets had been compromised, while pledging to examine all available information. Huang supported the review and committed to cooperate, and the board said it retained confidence in him and his leadership team.

On Kalshi, contracts cited by CNBC put the chance of Huang being gone from Nvidia at 17% by 2027, 30% by 2028 and 35% by 2029. The probability of a departure by 2031 was 75%, indicating that traders saw a longer-term exit as much more likely than an immediate removal.

Kalshi’s own market coverage showed an initial spike in nearer-term concern following Huang’s Nov. 8 admission that he had been unfaithful to his wife. Its contract on him being out as chief executive before July 1, 2027, reached 44% that day before retreating to roughly 30%. A separate contract on his leaving the chief executive role by Jan. 1, 2028 had reached 44% before settling at 36%; the probability for Jan. 1, 2029 was 40%.

Polymarket listed a 15% chance that Huang would resign or be removed by Dec. 31, and a roughly 25% probability that he would resign or be forced out by the end of March 2027. The contracts use different resolution rules: Kalshi’s departure contracts are resolved using Bloomberg information, while Polymarket relies on official statements from Nvidia or Huang.

Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair with a woman whom U.S. intelligence officials, according to The New York Times, said was a spy for China’s Ministry of State Security. China’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the spying allegations as a smear campaign against Beijing.

Nvidia shares fell more than 5% in Monday trading after the investigation was announced. The stock fell $10.48 to $176.16, and had fallen 23% over the preceding 30 days, amid a broader sell-off in major artificial-intelligence companies since early October.

Huang has led Nvidia for more than three decades. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. said there was only a small chance that Huang would be removed or step down, although the board investigation could remain a near-term overhang for the shares.