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Prediction markets see low near-term odds of Jensen Huang leaving Nvidia
Kalshi’s market-implied odds rose after concerns intensified and Huang admitted an affair, while Kalshi and Polymarket traders still placed a departure this year or early next year well below even odds.
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Tesla-SpaceX merger market sees 9% odds of a year-end announcement
Longer-dated contracts remain far more optimistic as special committees examine a proposed transaction
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Apple explicitly bars confidential-information bets on prediction markets
The new insider-trading-policy language reaches event contracts even when a trade falls outside securities-law definitions.
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Founders Fund demanded repayment and controls before Polymarket investment
The venture firm’s 2025 diligence uncovered personal spending by Shayne Coplan, as investors now press the prediction-market company to deepen its leadership bench.