Kalshi projects Roy Cooper Senate win in North Carolina

Kalshi projected on Nov. 3 that Democrat Roy Cooper would defeat Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, with traders pricing Cooper’s chance of victory at 99% after polls closed.

The exchange stressed that its projection was not a market resolution and did not mean the race had been called. Cooper’s price had been 98% when polls closed, meaning the market moved higher while stopping short of declaring an official result.

A Cooper victory would flip a Republican-held seat and mark the first Democratic Senate win in North Carolina since 2008, according to Kalshi. It would still leave Democrats three net Senate pickups short of a majority.

The market had favoured Cooper throughout the year. Kalshi put Democrats’ chance of flipping the seat at 77% at the beginning of the year, and Cooper was the favourite from January onward. His implied probability reached 95% on Oct. 14, 96.1% on Oct. 21 and 97.5% on Nov. 2, the highest price among the Senate battlegrounds.

Cooper, a two-term former governor, faced Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair making his first run for office. Kalshi’s polling average showed Cooper leading by about 10 points on Oct. 21 and by roughly 9.8 points nearer the election.

An Elon University Poll conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 8 found Cooper leading Whatley 52% to 39% among likely voters, with 6% undecided. When undecided voters were pressed to choose, Cooper led 54% to 43%.

The Elon survey, based on a final sample of 800 North Carolina adults, had a reported overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.03%. It found Cooper with especially strong support among Democratic voters, independents, Black voters, Hispanic voters and women, while Whatley led among White likely voters. Jason Husser of Elon University said Cooper’s sustained advantage was driven in part by moderates, true independents and women.

Prediction markets had drawn substantial interest in the state during the campaign. By late October, nearly $7 million had been wagered across Kalshi and Polymarket on North Carolina’s 14 House contests and Senate race. Husser said polls measure public opinion while markets aggregate participants’ expectations of the outcome, and cautioned that prediction markets cannot determine election results with certainty.