Flutter makes prediction markets a core priority as FanDuel Predicts grows

Flutter Entertainment has made prediction markets one of new chief executive Dan Taylor’s four immediate operational priorities, alongside strengthening its US position, improving its international portfolio and simplifying the business. The decision comes as FanDuel Predicts has accelerated since the start of the NFL season, even while Flutter cut its full-year financial outlook after poor sports results and the closure of its Brazil operations.

Taylor, who took over from Peter Jackson on Oct. 1 after Jackson’s nearly nine-year tenure, told investors that FanDuel Predicts had not been competitive until recently. He said the product had made rapid progress and had been operating at scale only since the NFL season began.

The platform handled $119 million of volume in the third quarter, a 102% increase from the second quarter. It averaged 66,000 monthly players, up 39% quarter on quarter, and October volume was 271% higher than in July. FanDuel Predicts had 140,000 active users in October.

Flutter credited a nationwide FanDuel One App launch and the transition of sports contracts to Crypto.com with improving the offering. Since the NFL season began, it has added a wider selection of sports markets, variable fees, sub-penny and fractional contracts, and an improved promotions experience.

The company said customers acquired through prediction markets resembled its regular sportsbook customers but cost less to acquire. It is attracting those customers in states where its sportsbooks are unavailable, while using its sports-event pricing experience, including for complex correlated events, to grow market making. Flutter said that activity could help fund customer acquisition.

For now, the company said prediction markets have had limited effect on the betting activity of existing sportsbook customers. Taylor attributed that to what he called the sportsbook’s superior proposition, based on Flutter’s consumer research.

The competitive effect is already visible in advertising. Flutter said higher marketing spending by prediction-market operators was beginning to lift its own media costs, although the duration of that pressure will partly depend on how regulation develops. As this publication reported in October, prediction-market operators’ NFL-season customer-acquisition spending had approached established sportsbook levels.

Flutter’s sales and marketing costs were 16% higher year over year in the third quarter, partly because of investment in FanDuel Predicts. US revenue nevertheless rose 6% to $1.46 billion, while US adjusted EBITDA fell to $3 million; investment in FanDuel Predicts was among the factors in that decline.

At group level, third-quarter revenue grew 2% to $3.87 billion, but Flutter reduced the midpoint of its 2026 revenue outlook by $300 million to $17.61 billion and cut adjusted EBITDA guidance by $160 million to $2.50 billion. The company attributed the revisions to unfavorable sports outcomes in its US and international businesses and the previously disclosed Brazil closure, partly offset by cost actions.

Flutter posted a quarterly net loss of $1.15 billion, including $873 million in non-cash impairment charges, primarily related to Brazil. It said prediction markets were a significant incremental growth opportunity and plans to invest with discipline while keeping flexibility as regulation evolves. Investment is expected to continue at similar or higher levels in 2027 because of the early momentum.