El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate seat as Kalshi market climbs to 99%

Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, with the Associated Press calling the contest for the Democrat. Kalshi’s market moved to a 99% implied probability of an El-Sayed victory after polls closed, up from 88% at that point.

The result keeps retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat in Democratic hands. It also makes El-Sayed, a 42-year-old former public health official, the first Muslim American to serve in the U.S. Senate, NPR reported.

As we reported on Oct. 31, Kalshi had already put El-Sayed’s implied chance of victory at 77% as the campaign entered its final days. On Election Day, the market rose as high as 80%, from 68.5% a week earlier, while Rogers’ chance fell to 20%.

Kalshi’s final projection capped a volatile market cycle. El-Sayed had led the market after narrowly beating Rep. Haley Stevens in the Aug. 4 Democratic primary, though his price briefly fell to 55% before he established an advantage over Rogers. The market put him at 70% on Sept. 22 and 74% on Oct. 6, then cut his probability from 73% to 67% after the candidates’ Oct. 9 debate.

The closing stretch included a rupture within Michigan Democrats. Stevens, who had initially said she would support the Democratic ticket, endorsed Rogers on Nov. 1. Kalshi’s price for El-Sayed fell from about 76% to 68% within hours. His campaign raised more than $2.4 million on Sunday, its largest fundraising day, according to the campaign.

Polls had pointed to a narrower but persistent El-Sayed lead. Kalshi’s polling average showed him ahead 49.2% to 44.9%, while a final New York Times/Siena survey put the contest at 53% to 42%. FiftyPlusOne’s tracker showed an average lead of five to six points as of Nov. 2.

More than $33 million had been wagered on Kalshi’s Michigan Senate market by Nov. 2. Rogers was seeking the seat after narrowly losing Michigan’s 2024 Senate election, while El-Sayed ran on the cost of living, corruption, single-payer health care and reducing corporate influence in politics.