Kalshi shifts to Hinojosa after Abbott concedes Texas governor’s race

Kalshi projected Gina Hinojosa as the winner of the Texas governor’s race after its traders put her chance of victory at 99% once polls had closed, up from 37%. The projection followed Hinojosa’s confirmed defeat of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott on Nov. 3, ending his bid for a fourth term.

Abbott conceded at 10 p.m. and said he had called Hinojosa to congratulate her, according to The Texas Tribune. The Democratic state representative from Austin became Texas’s first Latina governor and its first Democratic governor since Ann Richards, who was elected in 1990.

The market’s late shift underscored how strongly it had favoured Abbott for much of the campaign. Hinojosa traded below 10% on Kalshi for most of the summer, rose to a then-record 40% on the eve of the election, and stood at 38% on Nov. 2. On Election Day morning, Abbott was still priced at 66%.

The final public polling was more closely divided. A New York Times/Siena survey put Hinojosa ahead 48% to 47%, while Kalshi’s polling average showed Abbott leading 48.7% to 46.4%. Prediction-market prices do not use traditional polling methodologies and are not substitutes for political polls, CNBC noted.

The Texas governor market drew about $21 million in trading by Nov. 3, part of more than $1.4 billion in midterm-related volume on Kalshi, Fortune reported. Its contracts are to be resolved using data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office.

Hinojosa overcame a spending disadvantage of more than four to one. Abbott entered the year with more than $100 million in campaign cash, and by the end of September his advertising outlay had reached nearly $118 million, compared with $26 million for Hinojosa. Her campaign emphasized public schools and reducing corporate and billionaire influence in state government.

Hinojosa launched her campaign in October 2025 and initially struggled to gain attention outside Central Texas. The race tightened over the summer as public polls put Abbott behind for the first time in his gubernatorial campaigns, after he had won each of his previous three contests by double-digit margins.

As we reported in October, Kalshi’s separate Texas Senate market had already passed $30 million in trading as Democrat James Talarico held a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton. Hinojosa campaigned alongside Talarico during the governor’s contest.

Hinojosa has said she would fire Education Commissioner Mike Morath on her first day, seek to end the school-voucher programme, require lawmakers to regulate data centers and return $1,500 from the state savings account to each Texas household.