Kalshi’s Texas Senate market passes $30 million in trading

More than $30.4 million had been traded in Kalshi’s market on the Texas Senate race by Oct. 16, placing the contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico among the exchange’s largest election markets.

The figure measures the cumulative value of contracts traded, rather than the number of participants or the money currently at risk. Kalshi’s own market page had recorded $29.4 million in volume at 5:47 p.m. EST on Oct. 15, showing the market crossed the $30 million threshold the following day.

The market’s latest pricing still favored Talarico, though by less than earlier in the month. Kalshi put his implied chance at 61%, against 39% for Paxton, on Oct. 16. Talarico had previously reached 66% on Kalshi before the market tightened. Polymarket put Talarico at 62% that day.

As covered earlier this month, Talarico had remained the prediction-market favorite despite a brief illness-related absence from the campaign trail. Kalshi’s Oct. 15 polling average showed Talarico at 48.4% and Paxton at 45.5%, while the Cook Political Report had shifted the race to Toss Up on Oct. 6 after major forecasters had rated it Likely Republican in late 2025.

The race is for an open seat after John Cornyn lost the Republican nomination, leaving neither major-party nominee as an incumbent. Talarico, a state representative and former middle-school teacher, defeated Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. Paxton, Texas attorney general since 2015, beat Cornyn in the Republican runoff. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot.

Kalshi’s market uses continuously priced binary contracts, from 1 to 99 cents. A contract tied to a candidate pays $1 if that candidate’s party wins and zero otherwise. More broadly, users buy and sell contracts linked to yes-or-no questions, with prices moving as trading changes the market’s assessment of an outcome.

Jared Elson of Authentikos Advisory said the close Texas contests had attracted attention. He distinguished the platforms from conventional betting because users trade contracts rather than placing wagers with a casino or bookmaker.

That distinction is central to a policy dispute in Texas. Kalshi and Polymarket classify their products as federally regulated derivatives, and their U.S. operations are registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as designated contract markets. Texas lawmakers, however, are studying whether federally regulated derivatives are being used to circumvent state gambling prohibitions and have been asked to recommend ways of protecting the integrity of Texas elections and sports.

The Texas Senate Committee on State Affairs held a prediction-markets hearing in September, as previously reported, but it did not change state law. Kalshi says its rules and federal law prohibit insider trading, that candidates and campaign staff are blocked from election markets, and that it uses real-time surveillance for violations. During the Republican primary, the company fined congressional candidate Zeke Enriquez $784.20 and suspended him for five years after he traded less than $100 in contracts related to his own candidacy.

Early voting was scheduled to start the Monday following Oct. 16. The general election is Nov. 3.