Talarico remains Texas Senate favorite on prediction markets after illness absence

James Talarico remained the prediction-market favorite in Texas’s U.S. Senate contest on Oct. 11, two days after returning from a nine-day illness-related absence from the campaign trail. Kalshi put the Democrat’s chance of victory at 63%, against 37% for Republican Ken Paxton, while Polymarket placed Talarico at 64%.

The absence did not produce a decisive reversal in the market pricing. Newsweek reported that Talarico’s Kalshi probability had fallen from 66% to 63% during the period away from public events, as Paxton’s rose from 34% to 37%. That still left Talarico above his 60% Kalshi price on Sept. 28, when Paxton stood at 40%.

Kalshi’s own Oct. 7 update showed a higher reading of 67% for Talarico and 33% for Paxton. Prediction-market prices reflect traders’ estimates of an outcome, with Polymarket’s prices moving as participants buy and sell outcome shares. They are not direct measures of voter preference, and the figures cannot establish whether Talarico’s illness caused any shift in the odds.

Talarico had stepped back from in-person campaigning after being diagnosed with the flu. His first appearance following the absence was an unannounced visit to the Austin City Limits festival on Oct. 9. Paxton’s campaign used missing-person posters, demanded “proof of life” and promoted a “Tala-Freak-Out Tip Line” during the absence.

Conventional polls offered a less uniform picture of the race. A Trafalgar survey of 1,086 likely voters, conducted Oct. 6-8, put Talarico ahead by 47.1% to 43.6%. A Times/Siena survey conducted Sept. 21-30 found him leading 51% to 45%, while a YouGov poll of 3,625 likely voters fielded from Sept. 28 to Oct. 5 put the margin at 50% to 44%.

But a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of 850 likely voters, conducted Sept. 18-28, found the candidates tied at 45% each, with 7% undecided and a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. The differing polling and market measures underscored the uncertainty surrounding a contest that Democrats hope can deliver a statewide victory in a Republican stronghold.

The election is on Nov. 3; Polymarket’s market rules provide for settlement based on the Democratic nominee winning the Senate election, including any applicable runoff, tiebreak or other procedure.