Kalshi projects Kreiss-Tomkins win in Alaska governor’s race

Kalshi projected that Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins would defeat Republican Bernadette Wilson in Alaska’s governor’s race, after traders pushed his implied chance of winning to 99% following the close of polls. The exchange’s projection was not an official result, with ballots still being counted and the state targeting Nov. 25 to certify the election.

Kreiss-Tomkins held 48.8% of first-choice votes after more than 209,000 ballots had been counted on Nov. 3. Wilson had 29.4%, followed by former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson with 14.1% and former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor with 7.4%, according to the Anchorage Daily News. KTOO reported a broadly similar tally when 78% of precincts were reporting, with Kreiss-Tomkins at 49%.

Because no candidate had cleared 50% in the initial count, the contest could be decided through Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation. Election officials were scheduled to continue counting ballots until Nov. 18.

A Kreiss-Tomkins win would flip a governorship held by Republicans and make him Alaska’s first Democratic governor since Tony Knowles left office in 2002. Official results from that year show Republican Frank Murkowski and his running mate, Leman, won the governor’s race with 55.85% of the vote.

The 37-year-old former state representative from Sitka entered the gubernatorial contest in February. He emerged as the top vote-getter in the August primary, then became the lone Democrat in a four-candidate general-election field after Tom Begich withdrew and endorsed him.

Wilson, a business owner, former conservative activist and radio host endorsed by President Donald Trump, led the three Republican candidates. Bronson and Taylor remained on the ballot despite calls from Trump and Wilson for them to withdraw in support of Wilson.

Kreiss-Tomkins campaigned as a pragmatic candidate, promising to appoint Republicans to his cabinet and supporting new oil and gas taxes to help address Alaska’s structural deficit. His campaign raised more money than his three general-election opponents combined, and he won endorsements from Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, former Gov. Frank Murkowski and former state Senate President Rick Halford.

Kalshi’s market had favored Kreiss-Tomkins after the primary. On Oct. 30, it priced him at 88%, compared with 11% for Wilson, while the exchange had put Democrats’ chance of flipping the governorship at 51% before the Aug. 18 primary. Alaska Survey Research’s final poll projected a 53%-47% Kreiss-Tomkins victory over Wilson after ranked-choice tabulation.

The candidates are seeking to replace Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who has led Alaska since 2018 and could not seek reelection because of term limits. The winner is set to take office at noon on Dec. 7.