Bitcoin prediction markets put $70,000 ahead of a six-figure return

Prediction-market traders were pricing a further Bitcoin retreat as the more likely near-term outcome than a return to six figures, following a week in which the cryptocurrency traded at $75,723 at noon Eastern time on Nov. 7. Bitcoin was down 2.4% over seven days and 6.6% over the preceding month, with fewer than eight weeks remaining in the year.

On Polymarket, the most probable unresolved 2026 price threshold was $70,000, carrying a 52% implied probability. The same market put the chance of touches of $65,000, $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000 at 31%, 18%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

Upside thresholds attracted markedly less support. Polymarket priced a $90,000 touch before year-end at 24%, $95,000 at 13% and $100,000 at 9%. The probabilities fell to 3% for $120,000 and about 2% for $150,000.

As covered in October, Bitcoin's $100,000 year-end odds had already fallen to roughly 30% on Polymarket and Kalshi in mid-month. The Nov. 7 reading showed a still more cautious Polymarket market, though its contracts test whether Bitcoin touches a stated price at any point, rather than its closing level on Dec. 31. Several thresholds can therefore resolve successfully in the same period.

Polymarket's 2026 Bitcoin market had generated about $82.7 million in trading across more than 46 targets. Its separate November contracts put the chance of a $72,500 touch at 61%, a $70,000 touch at 43% and a $67,500 touch at 26%, while assigning about a 1% probability to Bitcoin reaching $100,000 during the month.

Kalshi offered a different measure: mutually exclusive bands for Bitcoin's price at the end of 2026. Its leading bracket was $75,000 to $79,999.99, at 17.6%, narrowly ahead of the $70,000 to $74,999.99 band at 17.5%. Together, those two outcomes represented 35.1% of implied probability; the $80,000 to $84,999.99 bracket stood at 12.5%.

Kalshi's year-end market had accumulated about $46 million in volume. It settles on the CME CF Bitcoin Real Time Index, averaging 60 one-second observations in the final minute of Dec. 31, rather than using Polymarket's Binance-based intraday threshold method. Its November high-price market gave Bitcoin a 35% chance of exceeding $82,500, falling to 21% above $85,000 and 15% above $87,500.

Myriad's November quotes broadly resembled the downside leaning, assigning 43% to a $70,000 touch, 61% to $72,500 and 9% to $90,000. But its upside and downside markets had traded only about $96 and $5.68, respectively, making them weak standalone evidence of broader market consensus.

Prediction-market prices reflect what participants will pay for individual contracts, rather than statistically guaranteed forecasts.