Bitcoin’s $100,000 year-end odds fall to about 30% on prediction markets

Prediction-market traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before the end of 2026 at roughly three in 10 in mid-October, leaving a six-figure price a minority expectation despite stronger odds for smaller gains.

A market reading reviewed on Oct. 14 put the implied probability at 29% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi. Kalshi’s figure was down 10 percentage points from 40% on Oct. 6, indicating a rapid retreat in conviction over the preceding eight days.

Polymarket’s contracts measured whether Bitcoin touched a stated price before the deadline, rather than its closing price on Dec. 31. Its odds stepped down sharply as the target rose: 65% for $90,000, 44% for $95,000 and 29% for $100,000.

A Polymarket reading on Oct. 13 put the year-end $100,000 chance at 27%, with about $75 million traded in its 2026 Bitcoin-price market. Bitcoin was then trading near $83,400. The same market assigned only a 2% chance of touching $100,000 before November, while odds for year-end targets of $110,000 and $120,000 stood at 12% and 7% respectively.

Rajagopal Menon, WazirX’s vice president, said Bitcoin at $100,000 remained possible, but the money backing the outcome implied only about a three-in-ten chance. WazirX’s fourth-quarter outlook focused on whether monetary tightening and demand through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds would alter those expectations.

The backdrop for that assessment was mixed. The Federal Reserve had raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, and further tightening alongside stronger Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would make conditions more difficult for Bitcoin. Net crypto ETF inflows were about $3.3 billion in September, according to CoinGlass data, but early October brought about $900 million in net outflows through Oct. 12.

Menon said WazirX would watch whether ETF inflows persisted as Bitcoin rose and whether spot buying strengthened near resistance, treating sustained demand at higher prices as a test of the rally.