Kalshi puts Jensen Huang’s Nvidia comeback odds at 9% despite Musk support

Kalshi traders assigned Jensen Huang a 9% chance of returning as Nvidia’s chief executive, even as Elon Musk, employees and two major shareholders backed keeping that option open after the founder’s resignation.

The price was up three percentage points over 24 hours, but left Huang fourth in Kalshi’s market on Nvidia’s next chief executive. Rene Haas, the Arm Holdings chief executive and a former Nvidia computing-products vice president, led at 26%, up four points. Ian Buck stood second at 16%, down from nearly 27% on Nov. 13, while interim CEO Colette Kress was third at 11%.

Musk said on Nov. 13 that he had signed a petition seeking Huang’s reinstatement. He argued that Huang had driven Nvidia’s supply chain “brilliantly” and that some key arrangements rested on handshakes rather than written contracts. “Without Jensen, at least some of those critical deals will be lost,” Musk wrote.

The online “Stand with Jensen” petition claimed more than 100,000 signatures, including more than 5,000 from current Nvidia employees. An internal suggestion-box post that predated Huang’s resignation drew more than 1,600 comments, with several urging the board to find a way to bring him back.

As reported Nov. 12, Nvidia installed its chief financial officer, Colette Kress, as interim chief executive after Huang resigned, while it began the search for a permanent successor.

Brad Gerstner and Gavin Baker, two major shareholders, also asked the board to take a “slow, measured, and deliberate” approach and to keep all options open, including a potential Huang return. Their letter did not call for his immediate reinstatement and said Kress could capably lead the company in the interim.

A separate Kalshi snapshot reported by The Straits Times showed the longer-dated market for Huang becoming permanent CEO by the end of 2028 briefly reached 15% on the evening of Nov. 13 before slipping to about 7%. That report put Buck first at 33%, with Kress and Haas tied at 13%, underscoring that the quoted probabilities varied with the timing and contract.

Kalshi traders put the chance of Nvidia naming a permanent CEO before Dec. 16 at 14%, rising to 25% before Jan. 1 and 54% before Feb. 1. The February probability had fallen from 63% the previous day.