Ohio trader says $5,000 Ramaswamy wager vanished with Kalshi loss

Sean Menon, a 29-year-old from Dublin, Ohio, said he lost $5,000 after buying Kalshi contracts that would have paid out only if Republican Vivek Ramaswamy won the Ohio governor’s race. Democrat Amy Acton won the contest, which the Associated Press called shortly before 11 p.m. on Nov. 3.

Menon had bought the contracts during the year before the election at about 40 cents each, implying that the market put Ramaswamy’s chance of winning at roughly 40%, according to CNBC Make It. The outlet was unable to independently verify the purchase, and Menon said he no longer has a Kalshi account.

Kalshi contracts pay $1 when the specified outcome occurs. Had Ramaswamy won, Menon said his position would have yielded about $7,500 in profit before fees, or roughly 60 cents for every contract. He could also have sold the contracts for an estimated $2,000 profit before fees when Ramaswamy’s odds briefly rose to nearly 56% in July.

Instead, Menon held on as Ramaswamy’s chances fell from August onward. He described the position as “moreso just an emotional bet,” rather than a trade based on analysis, and said: “I was expecting it to go my way, but obviously I was wrong.”

The wager followed an earlier successful experience in the 2024 presidential election, when Menon said his own research had given him an edge over polls and markets he considered less accurate. The Ohio result did not shake his confidence in prediction markets, though he does not regard them as part of his long-term financial strategy.

Menon told The Washington Post on election night that he and his girlfriend would have to curb spending temporarily to preserve a cash cushion for an impending move to California. He said they would be OK, and said bettors should be prepared to lose their entire stake without financial peril.

Financial advisers cited by CNBC made a similar distinction. Eileen Olson of Emerald Wealth said prediction-market users should trade only with discretionary “fun money,” keeping emergency savings and money intended for goals such as a move separate. Andrew Lendnal of Wealthspire said such trading should come only after bills, savings and retirement contributions, and should amount to a small share of monthly spending money.

The Ohio contest drew substantially more money than Menon’s personal stake. Traders placed more than $18.6 million in Kalshi contracts on the governor’s race, while more than $2.8 million was traded on Polymarket. Prediction markets are marketplaces in which participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events, generally with defined yes-or-no outcomes and a typical $1 settlement value.

Ramaswamy had once been a strong market favorite: Kalshi’s tracker put his peak odds at 85% in February 2025. His odds matched Acton’s in March, then he again became the favorite in July before the reversal later in the campaign.

An Ideastream review found that Kalshi first put Acton ahead on Aug. 13, while Decision Desk HQ’s forecast did so on Sept. 17 after a batch of September polls. Both forecasts kept Acton ahead through Election Day. Kalshi’s own retrospective said Acton was priced at 80% on Nov. 3, while final polls ranged from a tie to an eight-point Acton lead.

Acton, a former state health director, defeated Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate, for the seat being vacated by term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine. Her victory flipped a Republican-held governorship and marked Ohio’s first Democratic gubernatorial win since 2006.