Kalshi prices Schumer at 86% in Democratic leadership contest

Kalshi’s market for the next Senate majority leader put Chuck Schumer at 86% on Nov. 13, following Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s decision to challenge the New York Democrat for the post. Van Hollen was priced at 14%, while Sen. Brian Schatz stood at 2%.

Van Hollen announced his candidacy in an MS NOW interview on the evening of Nov. 12, after previously saying he would not support Schumer’s bid. He said the race was “not about any one individual,” but a response to voters who sent more Democrats to Congress in the midterms. He described himself as the underdog.

The Maryland senator said more than 10 of the 55 Democratic senators and senators-elect supported him. His backers included Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan and Sen.-elect Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota, while Bernie Sanders said he would oppose Schumer and had encouraged Van Hollen to run.

Schumer, who has led Senate Democrats for nearly a decade, said he had the votes needed to continue serving as Democratic leader. Van Hollen’s challenge is set to become the first contested Senate Democratic leadership election in decades, after internal divisions over Schumer that had been developing since a 2025 spending vote with Republicans.

Democrats gained eight Senate seats in the midterms and are expected to hold at least a 55-45 Senate majority when the new Congress begins in January. A pending Alaska result could raise the Democratic total to 56 seats.

The leadership election is expected in early December. Democratic Conference rules require an in-person secret ballot in contested leadership races, with further ballots held until one candidate wins a majority of members present and voting. Depending on Alaska, 28 or 29 votes would be needed to prevail.

Van Hollen has pitched a leadership agenda including restoration of Medicaid funding cuts, an extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits and a higher minimum wage. He also said he would avoid taking sides in contested Democratic primaries and would ensure that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee did not accept AIPAC money.