Kalshi odds of imminent Anthropic IPO tumble as valuation views reset

Kalshi traders sharply reduced their expectations for an imminent Anthropic initial public offering after a broad sell-off in technology shares. Odds that the company would announce an IPO before December fell to 57% from more than 85% a week earlier, while the probability of an announcement before January dropped to 68% from 90%.

A separate Kalshi measure of whether Anthropic would complete or announce an IPO this year fell from nearly 90% before the midterm elections to below 60%. CNBC linked the repricing to investor concerns that Democratic victories in Congress could slow data-center construction and weaken the appeal of AI investments.

The change came as the Nasdaq Composite closed more than 10% below its most recent high, crossing a commonly watched correction threshold. The S&P 500 fell 4.4% during the sell-off and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,800 points, or 3.4%. AI, semiconductor and data-center stocks were hit particularly hard on Nov. 5, although the Nasdaq rose 1.09% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovered about 4.2% the following day.

Investor valuation discussions also moved lower. KuCoin reported that expectations had fallen from about $2 trillion in September to a range centred around $1.1 trillion, after some investors had cut estimates to roughly $1.5 trillion following Anthropic’s Oct. 14 Investor Day. Institutional investors had reportedly sought a $1.5 trillion-to-$1.6 trillion cap on Nov. 2, before some potential buyers began discussing a $1.2 trillion-to-$1.3 trillion valuation, with $1.1 trillion also under consideration.

That contrasts with the more bullish prediction-market view captured in our Nov. 4 report, when Polymarket traders put the greatest probability on Anthropic closing its first trading day above $1.75 trillion. The two markets measured different outcomes: Kalshi’s contracts tracked the timing of an IPO announcement, while the Polymarket snapshot concerned first-day market capitalisation.

Anthropic filed an S-1 registration statement for a proposed sale of Class A common stock on Oct. 26 and said it intended to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. The company said then that neither the number of shares nor the price range had been determined, and that securities could not be sold until the registration statement became effective.

The offering had previously been expected to raise as much as $100 billion. Anthropic reported about $131.9 billion in cash and short-term investments as of Sept. 30, alongside nearly $900 billion in long-term commitments for computing-power procurement and leasing, including about $69.8 billion due by the end of September 2027.

The company has not officially set an offering price or listing date. Some potential investors questioned whether it could begin a roadshow in the week of Nov. 9 and complete a listing within November.