Polymarket bets favor $1.75 trillion-plus Anthropic debut

Polymarket traders put the balance of probability on Anthropic ending its first trading day valued above $1.75 trillion in a Nov. 4 snapshot. The $1.75 trillion-to-$2 trillion band was the market’s most likely range for the Claude developer’s first-day closing market capitalization.

The forecast was made before the initial public offering had been officially priced. TechFlow reported that Anthropic was expected to list on Nasdaq in mid-November under the ticker ANT, following its Oct. 26 filing to go public.

As we reported in late October, prediction-market contracts tied to the proposed offering had already drawn substantial activity around its timing, size, valuation and trading mechanics.

The bullish Polymarket pricing stood above the $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion IPO valuation that institutional investors had reportedly indicated to Anthropic and its advisers. It also came after Anthropic completed a $65 billion Series H round in May at a $965 billion post-money valuation.

By Nov. 6, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s IPO plans faced a post-election selloff, while prospective buyers were discussing a valuation closer to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. Some were considering as little as $1.1 trillion, ahead of formal IPO marketing due to begin the following week.

Anthropic’s reported third-quarter revenue was about $17 billion, roughly 11 times the $1.4 billion recorded in the comparable prior-year period. Adjusted operating profit was about $2.5 billion, producing a 15% margin after a negative 93% margin a year earlier.

The company also recorded a third-quarter net loss of about $23.3 billion. About $21.9 billion of that figure stemmed from fair-value changes in convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs, which were characterized as accounting revaluations rather than comparable cash outflows. Anthropic held about $131.9 billion in cash and short-term investments as of Sept. 30.

Google had the right to subscribe privately for as much as $10 billion of Anthropic shares at the offering price during the IPO.