S&P Dow Jones Indices brings benchmark settlement to Kalshi

S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi have formed a collaboration that brings established market benchmarks into prediction markets and opens a route for prediction-market prices to be turned into new indices.

Kalshi will be a preferred licensed prediction-market platform for event contracts tied to S&P DJI indices. Forthcoming contracts will settle using official index values published by S&P DJI, creating a defined reference point for outcomes tied to benchmarks including the S&P 500.

The arrangement is not exclusive. The companies described one another as preferred providers, and S&P DJI stressed that Kalshi contracts based on its indices are not sponsored, sold or endorsed by the index provider.

The deal also runs in the other direction. S&P DJI becomes a preferred provider for constructing indices from Kalshi event-contract data, applying its methodology to prices that express expectations about real-world outcomes. Potential products could track expectations for economic developments, political outcomes and sports, rather than the performance of conventional financial assets.

Neither company identified the first contracts or indices to be developed, nor gave a launch timetable. Cathy Clay, chief executive of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said robust indices help define a market, establish how it is measured and set rules for monitoring its evolution.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global and is home to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Kalshi, founded in 2018, describes itself as a regulated financial exchange for event-based prediction markets; its co-founder and chief executive, Tarek Mansour, said the tie-up could accelerate retail and institutional demand.

The agreement arrives as established market operators expand their prediction-market offerings. Intercontinental Exchange committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket in October 2025 and partnered with it to distribute probability feeds to professional investors. Nasdaq filed in March to offer prediction-market-style contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 Index, while Cboe launched yes-or-no options linked to its Mini-S&P 500 Index in June.