Bettors wager millions on Alito retirement as Supreme Court weighs prediction-market case

Bettors have wagered nearly $6 million since February on the timing of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s retirement on Kalshi and Polymarket. The platforms opened their first Alito markets in February, and interest rose again in October after publication of his book returned him to the headlines.

Alito, 76, told Bloomberg News that he had no plans to retire during the term, even if Democrats retake the Senate in the Nov. 3 elections. Bloomberg Law reported that traders have also put money on whom President Donald Trump would select as an Alito successor. On Polymarket’s crypto-based service, which is unavailable in the United States, one leading holder wagered more than $86,000 on Alito remaining, while another position would pay more than $60,000 if he retired by year-end.

The markets reach beyond personnel speculation. Nearly $2 million has been wagered on whether the Supreme Court will hear New Jersey’s dispute with Kalshi over the regulation of prediction markets. Kalshi does not offer that contract because it is a party to the underlying case.

As this project reported on Oct. 1, the relevant sports-contract petitions were still pending when the court opened its 2026-27 term. The litigation asks whether federal derivatives law displaces state gambling rules for sports-event contracts offered by a federally licensed exchange.

New Jersey petitioned the court after the Third Circuit, in an April 2-1 ruling, upheld a preliminary injunction for Kalshi. The appeals court held that Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts were swaps traded on a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed designated contract market, placing them within the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction and preempting conflicting New Jersey law.

New Jersey argues that allowing the arrangement would permit sports wagering without compliance with state gambling rules. Its attorney general’s office said litigation over prediction-market sports wagering has spread to at least 20 states, producing dozens of active suits, and noted that the Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion from the Third Circuit. The Ninth Circuit held that wagers on sporting-event outcomes do not fall within the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction.

The court is therefore a subject of trading on its own membership and docket while it considers whether to take a dispute that could help define the industry’s regulatory boundaries. Sports remain the principal source of prediction-market activity, but political markets have also drawn large volumes: Kalshi bettors have wagered more than $200 million on the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and more than $100 million on House control after the midterms.