Binance.US seeks CFTC approval to enter prediction markets

Binance.US has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for authorization to offer prediction-market services in the United States, according to a Financial Times report cited by Bloomingbit. The move would put the U.S. arm of Binance among crypto platforms seeking to add regulated event contracts as trading in digital assets weakens.

Blockchain.com made a similar CFTC filing the previous week, as we reported Oct. 9. Bullish has also applied for approval to offer event contracts, while Coinbase, Crypto.com and Gemini are targeting the sector, according to Hedgeweek.

Binance.US had already signalled its intentions in August. Chief executive Stephen Gregory said then that the company planned to seek a CFTC designated contract market licence to offer prediction markets, futures and options. The company is operated by BAM Trading Services and is a subsidiary of Binance, and is seeking up to $100 million in funding at an approximate $1 billion valuation to support its expansion.

Prediction markets allow traders to take positions on outcomes including elections, sporting events, interest-rate decisions and economic developments. Patrick Moley, a Piper Sandler senior research analyst, said retail-focused platforms were broadening their product ranges to retain customers and attract new ones, helping them weather a “crypto winter.”

The commercial appeal is reflected in trading figures cited by both reports. Combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September, an increase of more than fourfold, while spot crypto-trading volume fell 18% over the same period. Major tokens also saw steep falls over the year, including a 28% decline in bitcoin and a 42% drop in ether.

The expansion comes amid an unsettled regulatory and legal environment. In June, the CFTC proposed rules that would define “gaming” and set out factors for deciding whether particular event contracts are contrary to the public interest and therefore barred from listing or clearing through a CFTC-registered entity. Several states are separately challenging prediction markets under gambling laws; Michigan regulators said Coinbase had agreed to stop offering event contracts to customers in the state.

Platforms and states disagree over the nature of the products. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that their markets differ from conventional gambling because no house sets odds or serves as counterparty to every trade. New Jersey and Washington have argued that Kalshi’s sports-indexed contracts are not the type of legitimate contract market Congress intended to regulate under the Commodity Exchange Act.