Lumina Markets launches U.S. app for ForecastEx prediction contracts

Lumina Markets launched web and mobile applications for U.S. customers on Oct. 19, offering access to ForecastEx prediction-market contracts on subjects including Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, tariff measures, congressional control, Los Angeles temperatures and competition among artificial-intelligence labs.

The New York-based company’s service is available on the web, iOS and Android to U.S. persons aged 21 and over. Lumina is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as an introducing broker and is a National Futures Association member, with NFA ID 0576536.

Users can trade ForecastEx-listed contracts framed as Yes-or-No questions. Prices range from $0 to $1 and are intended to express the market’s view of the likelihood of an outcome. Lumina said it does not offer sports contracts or gamification features.

“The hard part is building something serious enough to be worth their time and simple enough that they do not have to be specialists, without it turning into a game along the way,” Zalan Gaal, Lumina’s founder and chief executive, said. “That is what we have tried to do.”

ForecastEx is a CFTC-designated exchange and an affiliate of Interactive Brokers. Its contracts include elections, economic questions, technology and world events, with many focused on macroeconomic events; contracts can also be based on climate events. The exchange says these markets can be used to manage exposure to such events, as well as for speculation.

CFTC documents describe ForecastEx forecast contracts as swaps whose value depends on whether a specified event occurs by a specified time. Yes and No are distinct contracts with separate identifiers. A Yes price of 50 cents, for example, represents a market forecast of a 50% probability that the proposition resolves Yes.

The contracts are fully collateralized, cannot be bought on margin and are not marked to market. At settlement, the winning Yes or No position pays $1 and the opposing position expires worthless. A participant may exit before resolution by acquiring an offsetting position in both sides of the same event question.

The exchange also warns that prediction-market speculation carries a substantial risk of loss, including an investor’s entire stake. Prices may not accurately reflect actual probabilities, and traders may be unable to offset a position if there is insufficient volume or bid depth on the opposing contract.

Lumina is backed by Thomas Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers Group, who invested in a personal capacity. “A market works better the more people can participate in it,” Peterffy said.