Polymarket Alpha traders made about $40m as age-access debate grows

A private group of roughly 30 Polymarket traders known as Alpha made about $40 million from 2024, according to a Financial Times report published on Oct. 3. The group included at least three teenagers, bringing renewed attention to who can use prediction markets as platforms face challenges over their age rules.

Alpha members pooled capital and expertise to trade contracts they believed were mispriced. Their approach was to take the opposite side when a contract’s market price appeared to overstate or understate the likelihood of an outcome. Members referred to less-informed traders as “dumb money.”

One example involved a $1 million order for “yes” shares on whether Donald Trump would create a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days. Alpha members filled half the order within a minute and made a collective $250,000, based on Polymarket data cited by the Financial Times.

The reported profits arrive amid a widening dispute over access to event-based trading platforms. Polymarket US and Kalshi accept eligible users from 18, while New York requires customers of licensed mobile sportsbooks to be at least 21.

New York Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul announced a lawsuit against QCX LLC, which operates as Polymarket US, on Sept. 24. The state alleges that Polymarket US contracts amount to gambling and that QCX lacks the required gaming licence. Its announcement specifically raised the availability of the platform to 18-to-20-year-olds.

New York had already filed a separate suit against Kalshi in July. Kalshi says it offers trading breaks, self-imposed limits, self-exclusion and mental-health resources, and in May announced a two-year, $2 million commitment to the National Council on Problem Gambling’s trader health and safety initiative. Polymarket announced voluntary self-exclusion and deposit limits on Sept. 30.

The debate has intensified as the sector has grown. Combined global monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from $2 billion in August 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of The Block data cited by NorthJersey.com. That April total exceeded the roughly $14 billion average monthly amount spent through legal US sportsbooks in 2025.

Kalshi has said that users aged 18 to 21 account for 3% of its trading volume. Critics, however, have argued that access to gambling-style contracts for people as young as 18 could draw college and high-school students into harmful activity.