Brazil’s right embraces Polymarket runoff odds

Brazilian right-wing political figures and influencers have seized on Polymarket’s sharply higher odds for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro amid distrust of opinion polls before the Oct. 25 presidential runoff.

Polymarket put Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77%, far above the roughly two-point advantage recent opinion polls gave him, a gap within those surveys’ margins of error. AFP reported that viral social-media posts have declared that Bolsonaro had “skyrocketed” on the platform and that Lula had lost.

The market had already become a rallying point before the first round. Influencer Paulo Figueiredo shared a chart showing a 63% chance of a Bolsonaro victory and wrote on X: “We are going to get rid of Lula forever.” Polls had put Lula ahead ahead of that vote, while Bolsonaro finished about two points behind him, reviving arguments over whether polling firms underestimate Brazil’s right.

Polymarket allows users to trade shares linked to real-world outcomes. Its prices reflect financial transactions and bettors’ expectations, rather than a survey of voter intention. Carolina Botelho, a political scientist, said polls measure the choices voters declare when questioned, while prediction platforms register bets that an individual trader may make repeatedly.

Polymarket itself said its contracts were “neither polls nor official projections, nor expressions of support for any candidacy.” Experts similarly warned that treating market prices as a measure of electoral support was misleading.

Users have traded about $185 million in contracts on the Brazilian election’s outcome. Brazil has banned Polymarket and other prediction platforms after Lula’s administration warned that they could increase household debt. A virtual private network can bypass the block.

As we reported in August, Brazil ordered blocks on Polymarket and other prediction-market platforms. The finance ministry is monitoring whether the restrictions are effective and may take further measures to reinforce them.

The Oct. 25 runoff will decide the contest between Bolsonaro and Lula.