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Brazil’s runoff count exposed a sharp prediction-market misfire
Lula overturned Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead as Polymarket and Kalshi odds swung during the live count
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Brazil’s right embraces Polymarket runoff odds
A 77% market probability for Flavio Bolsonaro has been embraced by right-wing figures amid distrust of polls, even as experts stress that wagers are not a measure of voter intent.
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Brazil prediction markets moved to Bolsonaro before first-round upset
Market odds crossed in Flávio Bolsonaro’s favor on Sept. 12, while Datafolha polls had put Lula ahead