Polymarket puts Niculescu at 84% before Romania cabinet deadline

Polymarket traders put Luca Niculescu’s chance of becoming Romania’s next prime minister at 84% on Wednesday, up 24 percentage points from 60% early Tuesday, as he prepared to submit a proposed cabinet and governing programme to Parliament on Thursday.

The market had attracted $5 million in trading. Sorin Grindeanu was a distant second at 6%, while interim Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and George Simion each stood at 2%. The remaining field implied a combined 16% chance, according to RG.org’s daily roundup.

The sharp move came before the party whose votes would determine the government had met, and after Parliament had rejected two proposed cabinets since May. Niculescu needs 233 votes for approval, but the Liberals and UDMR said they would back a cabinet without supplying ministers. With Social Democratic support, that would give the proposal at least 239 votes on paper.

That prospective support remained politically fragile. PSD leader Grindeanu said his party should not govern alone and wanted the Liberals and UDMR to join as full coalition partners, an arrangement the Liberals rejected. USR said it would not support a government containing PSD ministers, while AUR and SOS Romania ruled out backing a Niculescu cabinet.

Niculescu completed consultations with parties and independent lawmakers, BTA reported, but talks on his proposed six-month agreement did not produce consensus. He said the choices ranged from a political or mixed government to a technocratic administration, and described a coalition as “increasingly improbable.” His proposed pact would cover the budget, energy and defence.

He is the fourth prime-minister designate designated by President Nicușor Dan since Bolojan’s government fell in a May 5 no-confidence vote. Eugen Tomac surrendered his mandate in June; cabinets proposed by Adrian Veștea and Siegfried Mureșan then failed investiture votes. Mureșan’s cabinet secured 182 votes when it was rejected on Sept. 30.

Romania had been without a regular government for 161 days. Niculescu warned that a failure to revise the budget could disrupt hospitals, medicine supplies and local authorities as winter approaches, while S&P warned the deadlock put the 2027 budget at risk.

President Dan said he would dissolve Parliament on Friday if no transparent majority had been secured by Thursday, while political sources told Digi24 there would be no fifth nomination.