Bloomberg video examines prediction markets’ challenge to sportsbooks

Bloomberg published a two-minute video on Sept. 29 examining how the expansion of prediction markets is affecting sports betting and whether the sector needs further regulation.

The segment, reported by Romaine Bostick, included contributions from executives at BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood and Fanatics. It placed incumbent sportsbooks and newer event-contract platforms in the same discussion about whether more regulation of prediction markets is needed.

Prediction markets let users trade “yes” or “no” contracts tied to a future event, including sports results. Their prices are intended to reflect the probability implied by public trading, and a successful contract pays $1 when the outcome is decided. Traders can also sell before an event ends as the perceived probability changes.

That structure differs from a conventional sportsbook, which sets odds and builds in an edge, though betting lines can move in response to customer activity. Prediction-market operators argue that contract prices reflect public sentiment rather than an operator-set line, according to Sportico. Platforms can nevertheless use institutional market makers when there is no immediate counterparty.

The distinction has become commercially important. Sports-event contracts became available nationally under federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight in late 2024, Sportico reported, and the sector’s momentum continued through 2026. Kalshi and Robinhood operate in nearly every state, including jurisdictions where mobile sports betting is otherwise unavailable outside tribal land, while they accept customers aged 18 and over rather than the age 21 minimum described for traditional sportsbooks.

Established operators have begun to enter the field. DraftKings launched DraftKings Predictions and DKeX, while FanDuel launched FanDuel Predicts, according to TheLines. The outlet characterized the moves as a response to the rapid growth of sports-event contracts by companies that together hold more than 80% of the U.S. legal sports-betting market.

Aldrin Research data cited by TheLines put Kalshi’s opening-week NFL volume at $4.9 billion, while prediction markets collectively recorded $5.83 billion over that period. The CFTC said total trading volume across CFTC-registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025.

The federal regulator has acknowledged that event-contract prices can rapidly incorporate information and may help participants hedge risks where traditional financial instruments do not exist. But critics contend that sports-futures trading is gambling and should face state regulation and taxation. The CFTC regards affiliated market makers trading against customers as a potential conflict of interest, and has proposed rules addressing that issue.

In June, the CFTC proposed amendments that would define categories of event contracts that may be contrary to the public interest and therefore barred from listing or clearing through a CFTC-registered entity. The proposal also included a definition of “gaming” and a rule for determining when an event contract involves an underlying activity. Public comments closed July 27.