NBA seeks prediction-market data to detect manipulation

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said the league wants access to prediction-market data and greater control over the markets, arguing that the products create the same risks to sporting integrity as conventional betting.

“Whether it’s called a prediction market, whether it’s sports betting, it’s the same issues for our league,” Silver said. He said integrity was the foremost concern and added: “We want access to that data. We also want control of the market.”

Silver’s comments, reported by CNBC, put the NBA alongside other major leagues pressing for greater oversight as sports-related event contracts expand. He described contracts on whether a coach will be fired as “odd behavior,” and said data access would help the league regulate markets and detect insider trading.

He supported a minimum trading age of 21, while taking a different view from the NFL on the broader regulatory structure. Silver backed federal authority over prediction-market platforms, saying the NBA is subject to regulation across roughly 40 jurisdictions and would benefit from a consistent national policy.

The NFL, by contrast, has asked the Supreme Court to permit state regulation of sports prediction markets, as we reported Thursday. Its filing supporting New Jersey regulators characterized sports contracts as gambling rather than financial swaps and raised concerns about manipulation involving player injuries and performance.

Prediction markets offer event contracts tied to whether a specified outcome occurs, often framed as yes-or-no questions with binary payouts. The Congressional Research Service has noted that prices in liquid markets are generally understood to represent traders’ assessment of an outcome’s probability at a particular time.

The regulatory question matters because several platforms are registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as designated contract markets, while the agency has said some event contracts, including sports contracts, fit the Commodity Exchange Act’s definition of swaps. Sports-event contracts accounted for more than 85% of trading volume on Kalshi, a CFTC-registered market, according to the Congressional Research Service.

Concerns about misuse of nonpublic information have already prompted federal attention. The CFTC issued an insider-trading advisory on Feb. 25 and cited two Kalshi cases involving trading by a political candidate in contracts about his own candidacy and by an employee in contracts tied to YouTube videos. Kalshi fined and suspended both traders.

The agency said registered exchanges must maintain audit trails, conduct surveillance and enforce rules against prohibited practices. In June, the CFTC also proposed rules defining “gaming” and setting out factors for deciding whether event contracts, including those involving sports, should be barred as contrary to the public interest. Trading volume across CFTC-registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025.