NFL asks Supreme Court to let states regulate sports prediction markets

The National Football League has urged the US Supreme Court to decide whether states can regulate sports-related prediction-market contracts, arguing that the products amount to gambling rather than federally supervised financial swaps.

In a 24-page amicus brief supporting New Jersey’s petition against Kalshi, the league argued that gambling regulation is a core state police power. It said the Third Circuit’s finding that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi’s sports contracts conflicted with decisions by the Sixth and Ninth Circuits.

As we reported in September, New Jersey asked the justices to resolve that split after the Third Circuit ruled 2-1 in April that the state’s gambling laws were pre-empted when applied to Kalshi’s sports wagers.

The NFL said it did not oppose prediction markets as such, but contended that the CFTC’s resources and approach were inadequate for sports wagering. The commission has 543 employees covering the country and a broad derivatives remit, the brief said, while Nevada and Pennsylvania each have close to 400 staff overseeing their gambling industries.

The league contrasted state-regulated sportsbooks’ restrictions on wagers that can be manipulated, use of official-data information-sharing and monitoring for insider trading with what it called a more permissive approach by the commission and prediction-market operators. It said it had raised concerns about contracts tied to field goals, fumbles, injuries and officiating, as well as information potentially known to insiders before the public.

Age limits are another point of dispute. The NFL said state authorities generally require sports bettors to be at least 21, whereas CFTC-regulated platforms permit 18-year-olds to trade sports-event contracts. It also maintains a ban on advertising by prediction platforms and has not entered a prediction-market partnership, unlike the NHL, which has deals with Kalshi and Polymarket.

The scale of sports trading has sharpened the league’s concern. NFL-related contracts accounted for about $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded across prediction markets on the first Sunday of the 2026 season. The league warned that billions of dollars could be traded on NFL games each season if the legal question remains unresolved.

Kalshi has maintained that its products fall under federal derivatives regulation. Its spokesperson, Elisabeth Diana, said the company had repeatedly sought to work with the NFL on market integrity without a response. The CFTC likewise said the league declined to sign a memorandum of understanding that would have allowed greater cooperation and information exchange.

The NFL’s filing joins support for New Jersey from attorneys general in 39 states and the District of Columbia, along with a coalition of 145 tribal nations and organisations. The CFTC has separately proposed amendments addressing when event contracts may be contrary to the public interest, including issues of gaming, market integrity and self-regulation.

Kalshi’s response to New Jersey’s petition is due Nov. 9. The court is not expected to decide whether to take the case before December at the earliest.