Kalshi’s 15-minute gold contracts outpace Ether in first full month

Kalshi’s 15-minute gold contracts surpassed comparable Ether contracts in September, trading 542 million contracts against 318 million and producing an estimated $5 million in fees, according to Predict Charts data cited by crypto.news. The gold total was about 70% higher, while estimated Ether fees were $2.6 million.

The figures are estimates derived from Kalshi trade records rather than company-reported revenue or audited results. They refer to 15-minute event contracts, not Kalshi’s Ether perpetual futures, which were the subject of separate scrutiny in September.

Kalshi introduced the gold series in August, and its market pages showed contracts were active by Aug. 7. Each contract asks whether gold will settle above or below a reference level at the end of a 15-minute window; Kalshi uses Pyth pricing data to resolve the markets.

Gold’s quick rise did not displace Bitcoin as the platform’s main short-duration market. Bitcoin’s 15-minute contracts produced an estimated $60.4 million in September fees, more than 12 times the gold total. Ether’s own short-duration activity had risen from 6.1 million contracts in January to 233 million in July, before reaching 318 million in September.

The comparison forms part of a broader expansion of Kalshi’s rapid-expiry markets. In the seven days through Oct. 5, 15-minute crypto, commodity and financial markets generated an estimated $20.4 million in fees, about 80% of the platform’s $25.1 million non-sports fee total for that period, InGame reported. Those products accounted for 13% of overall trading volume but 20% of fees.

The disproportionate fee contribution reflects Kalshi’s pricing model: transaction charges are based on a contract’s expected earnings, and the effective rate is highest for contracts trading near 50 cents. Very short-term price markets often remain close to even odds, increasing the fee share relative to volume. The estimates include maker and taker fees but exclude market-maker rebates whose value was not known.

The gold markets sit within Kalshi’s newer commodity offering, which includes silver, oil, copper and agricultural products. Kalshi said on Sept. 8 that commodity prediction markets had reached $400 million in cumulative dollar trading volume in seven months, more than four times crypto’s volume at an equivalent stage. That dollar-volume measure is distinct from September’s 542 million count of gold contracts; one gold contract on Sept. 25 recorded more than $386,000 in volume in a single 15-minute market.

Kalshi said in September that it had filed for perpetual contracts tied to gold, silver and platinum, with a launch planned but no firm date provided.