Don Davis bill would ban federal candidates from betting on their own races

Rep. Don Davis, a North Carolina Democrat, has introduced legislation to bar federal candidates from trading prediction-market contracts tied to their own elections, extending the proposed prohibition to candidates’ spouses, dependent children and authorized campaign committees.

The No Betting on Your Own Race Act would prohibit those covered from buying, selling, acquiring, disposing of or holding contracts tied to the candidate’s election. It was introduced during a pro forma session of the House.

The bill would impose a civil penalty of $10,000 for each violation. Where a trade produced a net financial gain, the penalty would be three times that gain or $10,000, whichever is greater. It would also require that federal candidates be notified of the restriction during the filing period.

Davis said the measure was intended to prevent market interference and insider trading, as well as candidates and their families profiting from contracts tied to their election. He compared candidates to athletes, arguing that neither should be allowed to wager on their own competitions.

The proposal follows a dispute involving Laurie Buckhout, Davis’s Republican opponent in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, a tight battleground contest. CNBC reported that Kalshi found Buckhout had traded contracts related to her candidacy; she settled with the prediction-market platform in August, paying just under $2,600 and accepting a three-year suspension.

Buckhout acknowledged the conduct, saying: “I bet on myself. Literally.” She called it “a dumb mistake” and said she worked to correct it once she learned there was an issue. Davis described the trades as “a disqualifying breach of public trust.”

Prediction-market platforms have already sought independently to prevent candidates from trading in their own races because of insider-trading concerns. Davis said legislation was needed to establish a consistent rule and ensure federal campaign committees understood it.

In April, the Senate approved a resolution barring senators and congressional staff from trading on prediction markets. That resolution did not cover non-incumbent Senate candidates, and the House had not passed a corresponding ban, despite proposals to do so. Kalshi and Polymarket praised the Senate measure.

The House and Senate were not scheduled to reconvene until after the midterm elections, leaving the new proposal little prospect of taking effect during the current electoral cycle.