Kalshi market gives Raman narrow edge over Bass in Los Angeles mayor’s race

Nithya Raman held a narrow lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in Kalshi’s Los Angeles mayoral prediction market on Oct. 16, with the City Council member priced at a 54% chance of winning to Bass’s 46%, according to KTLA. The reading came less than three weeks before the Nov. 3 election, after the candidates’ only one-on-one televised debate.

The market figures have moved over the final-debate period. Kalshi’s own Oct. 14 account put Raman at 57%, up from 55% before the debate, while Bass was at 43%. Its prices had not changed immediately after the Tuesday-night event, making the subsequent 54%-46% KTLA reading a narrower Raman advantage rather than a clear debate-night shift.

As we reported on Oct. 10, Polymarket also put Raman narrowly ahead of Bass before the debate, although that market had tightened sharply over the preceding day.

The hourlong, commercial-free debate was hosted live by NBC4 and Telemundo 52 in Universal City. It was the candidates’ final head-to-head before the election, and covered public safety, homelessness, housing and economic development, as well as immigration, the Palisades Fire and the future of the Los Angeles Police Department.

The contest has pitted two progressives in a heavily Democratic city, but with sharply different arguments about Bass’s record. Bass cited an 11% reduction in street homelessness and a 50% fall in veterans’ homelessness, and credited her Inside Safe programme with progress in Raman’s district. Raman called Inside Safe expensive and insufficiently transparent or accountable, arguing that homelessness had begun to rise again after an earlier decline.

Policing was another point of division. Bass challenged Raman’s readiness to run a city of 3.8 million people and argued that replacing LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell before the 2028 Olympics would disrupt preparations. Raman said McDonnell had lost Angelenos’ trust, particularly in the response to ICE raids, while acknowledging that a mayor could not remove a police chief alone.

The Los Angeles Times reported that Raman had entered the debate ahead in polling, while Bass carried high negativity ratings and baggage from the Palisades Fire and the continuing homelessness challenge. Yet NBC Los Angeles reported a large undecided vote, leaving substantial uncertainty despite prediction-market leads. Bass has the backing of 13 of the City Council’s 15 members.

Raman has served on the council since 2020 and formerly endorsed Bass’s reelection before becoming her challenger. Jon Regardie, writing in the Westside Current, called the contest a “pick your poison election” for many Angelenos. Voters will decide the race on Nov. 3.