Kalshi bans George Santos for life over State of Union betting

Kalshi permanently banned former Rep. George Santos from its prediction market platform after concluding he likely violated its insider-trading rules by betting against his own attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union while talking publicly about whether he would go. The company said the ban took effect last Friday, barred him from accessing the platform directly or indirectly, and came with a $71,356 penalty.

According to Kalshi, Santos failed to cooperate with the investigation. The company said he placed a series of large bets between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on whether he would attend the speech, then began making public statements about his plans in an effort to influence the price of those wagers. Kalshi’s compliance department said some of those statements were false or misleading.

On the eve of Trump’s address, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%. Minutes into the State of the Union, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. In March, he addressed complaints about the episode on his podcast and said, "I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That's to show you how fragile these markets are."

ABC News reported that this was Kalshi’s first-ever lifetime ban. Santos responded on X by mocking the platform and thanking it for the punishment.

On the same day, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission separately settled charges against Santos over manipulative trading in the same event contract. The CFTC order required him to disgorge $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 civil penalty and stay out of trading for three years.