Brazil orders blocks on Polymarket, Kalshi and 25 prediction platforms

Brazil’s finance ministry ordered the blocking of 27 prediction platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. Enforcement was handled by the National Telecommunications Agency, Anatel. A researcher at The Block in Brazil later confirmed that both Polymarket and Kalshi were unreachable after the announcement.

The action lands after a broader regulatory tightening in April, when the National Monetary Council defined the scope of derivatives in Brazil’s prediction market and moved to curb companies offering contracts outside the financial realm. At the same time, the government imposed limits on financial institutions’ ability to engage in contracts related to sports events or political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment themes that, at CVM’s discretion, do not represent economic-financial benchmarks, leaving only contracts tied to economic benchmarks such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices under financial-market regulation.

Dario Durigan, the finance ministry’s executive secretary, said the sector had operated with no rules or oversight between 2018 and 2022. He framed the ban as a way to protect household savings and reduce families’, small businesses’ and students’ exposure to debt.

The blocked list was not limited to foreign names. It also covered Brazil-based services, among them Palpita, Cravei, Previsao and MercadoPred. Other platforms named in the reporting included PredictIt, Robinhood’s forecasting feature, Fanatics Markets, ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride.

Legal specialists quoted by Valor International said the government was not removing non-financial companies from the market altogether, but narrowing the types of contracts they could offer. Paulo Brancher of Mattos Filho argued that Brazil’s betting model under Law 14790 is different from prediction markets because bettors deal with an operator rather than with one another, while Caio Loureiro of TozziniFreire said the council had effectively signalled that it does not view prediction markets as a type of derivative.

Loureiro also said the resolution did not answer whether prediction markets are legal or not, but it did settle a key question by excluding sports, political, cultural and entertainment events from the derivative category. Filipe Senna of Jantalia Advogados said the move had surprised the market, though it was not entirely unexpected, and that it protects already regulated markets while leaving room for a broader debate later.

The clampdown comes as prediction markets have drawn more attention and more scrutiny. LatAm Journalism Review reported that trading volume on the platforms rose from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, and said Brazilian outlets had begun citing the markets alongside traditional polling in election coverage. Critics quoted in that reporting warned that betting markets can be manipulated by large wagers, coordinated campaigns and actors seeking to shape perceptions rather than measure them.

Brazil’s move also sits within a wider international backlash. CoinMarketCap said more than 30 countries have restricted Polymarket alone, with Portugal acting in January after earlier bans in France, Belgium, Australia, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland and Singapore. Some jurisdictions have taken a narrower approach, limiting only specific contract types such as political betting markets in Taiwan.