CFTC review of mention markets deepens pressure on Kalshi

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing prediction-market “mention markets”, contracts that let traders bet on whether specific words will be spoken in a speech, earnings call or broadcast, according to people familiar with the matter cited by CNBC and NPR.

As reported earlier this week, a Washington judge had already ordered Kalshi to cut most markets in the state, including mention markets. The latest reports suggest the company moved again after regulators started asking questions, but they differ on how broad that pullback was.

CNBC said Kalshi removed sports-related mention markets around the time the CFTC alerted the platform to its review. NPR reported on Aug. 14 that Kalshi had removed all mention markets from its betting offerings, while an earlier NPR dispatch said only sports-related mention markets were taken down and that political-event, earnings-call and live-news contracts were still listed.

The scope of the CFTC inquiry is still unclear. CNBC said it was not known whether the agency is looking only at sports-related mention markets or at the category more broadly, and both Kalshi and the commission declined to comment.

Mention markets have drawn unusual scrutiny because critics see them as easy to game. CNBC reported that they generated about $3.3 million in trading volume on Kalshi last month, and the agency itself said in July it was investigating a former teleprompter operator for President Donald Trump who allegedly made $90,000 betting on the content of Mr Trump’s speeches.

The regulatory backdrop has been tightening for months. In June, the commission proposed amendments to Regulation 40.11 and the addition of Appendix F to part 40, saying it had seen growth in event contracts, including contracts tied to sporting events, and seeking a more structured way to judge whether some contracts run against the public interest.

The Federal Register notice accompanying that proposal said total trading volume across CFTC-registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025, though that was still small beside the roughly $31 trillion notional value of the wider futures market regulated by the commission.

The CFTC also issued an enforcement advisory in February after two cases involving misuse of nonpublic information and fraud in KalshiEX markets, including penalties and trading suspensions. One of the cases involved a political candidate trading on his own candidacy, while another involved trading in a market tied to a YouTube channel.

The commission has now set its Innovation Advisory Committee to meet on Aug. 20 in Washington, with prediction markets on the agenda alongside artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.