NFL prediction trading tops $1.035 billion as Kalshi dominates

NFL prediction markets generated at least $1.035 billion in tracked volume from Sept. 7 to 13, as the first full week of the season drew a burst of football trading across Kalshi, Polymarket Global and Polymarket US.

As covered on Sept. 13, analysts had already been framing football as a near-term catalyst for prediction-market trading.

DeFi Rate said Kalshi accounted for $983.36 million of the tracked NFL total. That was up from $70.85 million the previous week, a jump of $912.51 million, or 1,288%. Within Kalshi's total, $537.48 million came from direct NFL contracts and $445.88 million from NFL-only combo contracts.

Polymarket Global added $28 million, while Polymarket US had reported $23.2 million across five days when the data were collected. The combined NFL total was a lower bound because Polymarket US had not yet posted its Sept. 10 and Sept. 13 Daily Market Reports.

The volume was not confined to the opening prime-time games. Patriots-Seahawks generated at least $111.49 million across the tracked venues, including $103.69 million on Kalshi, while 49ers-Rams generated at least $117.69 million overall and $95.63 million on Kalshi. The other 14 Week 1 matchups added another $315.58 million.

Across the full 16-game board, Kalshi and Polymarket Global recorded 3,989,735 trades and $523.13 million in contract volume, averaging 131.1 contracts per transaction.

On Kalshi, Week 1 game markets and game-specific props generated $495.92 million, up from $3.56 million a week earlier, and other direct NFL contracts added $41.55 million. NFL-only combo contracts rose to $445.88 million from $52.25 million the prior week, leaving NFL contracts at 30.1% of Kalshi's sports volume and 7.6% of its total market volume.

Kalshi reported $3.26 billion in sports contract volume and $12.98 billion across all markets during the week. Polymarket Global reported $695.21 million in sports volume and $1.12 billion overall, with NFL trading accounting for 4.0% of sports volume and 2.5% of total volume.

The week was the first regular-season checkpoint against the projection that Kalshi NFL volume could reach about $57 billion this season.