Tema launches first prediction-market ETF

Tema ETFs launched the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF, ticker DICE, on 9 September, positioning it as what the firm presents as the first exchange-traded fund built around prediction markets. The fund is actively managed, and it does not buy prediction contracts itself. Instead, it seeks exposure through shares in public companies tied to the sector and stakes in privately held operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

As reported in August, prediction-market ETF filings had piled up while the SEC had not approved one.

In July, the SEC asked for comment on ETFs pursuing innovative asset classes or novel strategies. In that notice, the commission said the ETF market had expanded from more than $4 trillion in net assets at the end of 2019 to more than $12 trillion by the end of 2025, and from almost 1,900 funds to more than 4,600.

According to Casino.org, DICE has 39 holdings. Its two largest positions are stakes in two closely held prediction-market operators, including Polymarket, and those stakes are held through special purpose vehicles, a structure Tema has used in some other funds. The portfolio also includes public names such as Robinhood Markets, Coinbase Global, IG Group and Intercontinental Exchange.

Tema gives itself broad room to decide what belongs in the strategy. It defines a prediction-market firm as one that derives at least half of annual revenue from products or services tied to infrastructure, software, data or other financial instruments related to traditional financial markets or prediction markets at the time of investment. The issuer says the fund covers a new generation of financial-market innovators spanning prediction markets, trading platforms, data providers and other market infrastructure.

The ETF charges 0.75% a year, or $75 on a $10,000 investment. Tema president Steve Munroe forecast that prediction-market trading volume could rise nearly 20-fold to $1 trillion by 2030. The launch also came as the NFL season kicked off and the U.S. midterm election cycle began to gather momentum.

Casino.org said DICE could benefit from first-mover advantage as the first ETF dedicated to the prediction-market segment. The fund arrives as investor interest in prediction markets grows, even though some of the biggest pure plays remain private.